Hey Jo, Well I hope your right about Cigs but...
Succes is to be determined. They are starting off small so lets see. Since, in the end people buy cigs to fix their habbit. If the cigs don't have enough nicotine will they buy it? <Shrug> To me, they are trying Cactus because they have lots of Cactus not because they think they've hit on a radical new ingredient in cigarrettes that Chinese are craving.
Now, If they get a succesfful product do they have enough cactus to keep up? These aren't awful problems to have of course :-) Just something that isn't clear to me yet.
I'm not convinced that US is going to be an obvious market. Does the US have a connection with consuming Cactus? The point is that the consumer should feel a health connection with consuming cactus. As an, admittedly, UK citizen my immediate reaction to cactus is "spikes" not health. I think perhaps US Mexicans might be a potential market? But, surely only try to market it if the product is sucessful in China?
I would describe my feelings on Cactus Cigs as cautiously optomistic.
Anyway, as it stands it's not material to the pps - which would seem to be significantly undervalued assuming a well run company.
rich