Mark,
As many of us I appreciate your contibutions to this board and I am looking forward to seeing where we are in 40 to 60 days.
But I want to add a thought that has been bumping around in my brain. For some reason the value has been passed around this board and seems to be accepted is that SEO is looking for $10/share for his ERHC stock. I keep looking at that number and I just don't see it. In my opinion SEO is looking for more like 10 Billion dollars for his share.
I came to that high level for two reasons: first at that value it insulates SEO from anything that could possibly happen in Nigeria. It essentially puts a financial blanket around him, his family and his close allies.
Second: if you look at the original Western Geophysical survey of a 14.4 Billion barrel barrel potential in the JDZ then based on ERHC having close to 20% of that (roughly 2.8 billion barrels) at a confirmed reserve rate of $7.50/Bbl. I think you have to give ERHC reserves a premium because there is no associated lifting cost. At those numbers that values ERHC's reserves at 21.6 Billion or $30/share.
I know a lot of people are going to question this logic but it fits the equation as I see it.
One more thing the market valued the 3 Billion barrel BP discovery in the Gulf of Mexico at $3.50 barrel when BP jumped 4% on the news. That is just the first day. It will be inetresting to see where they end up when that news is fully digested.
IMHO
BayFisher
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