Andiron, a couple points:
1. I think any TA analysis would conclude there are significant differences between this market and the 2002 market. Whether those differences are being caused by an overshoot or a longer-lasting bull cycle remains to be seen. I want to stay focused on all the integrated evidence--just the way it is. When this market is ready to decline in a serious way, I believe we will see the evidence mount--just as it did in the summer of 2008. At the moment, the stance remains fairly bullish--more bullish than it was in 2002 when folks were claiming the bear was over.
2. My comments are a warning to myself not to be "bull-headed" about being a bull or a bear right now. I certainly am not saying now is the time to buy long. Will wait for 10-low for that--just to see what the market stance is then.
3. I just don't like the idea of holding short because I think I *know* what is going to happen and that it's in the reasonably near future. Markets have a calculus and a timing that is often astounding--and crystal clear in the rear-view mirror.
Ted
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