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riskanalyst

08/20/09 11:29 PM

#93 RE: Rawnoc #92

You bring up currency risk and bring up devaluing currency issues. However the example you use when the peg was broken is a poor example. The devaluation was not caused by the breaking of the peg. The currency was already weak and Korea did not want to support the won peg anymore so they let it float and the won proceeded to depreciate. This time it is already floating, so the devaluation risk is not present. I won't get into the banking system issues, but Korea is much better positioned than most of Europe or the US.

USD may not devalue immediately because it is a freely floating currency, but look how it has performed versus EUR, JPY, GBP and CNY. CNY has been a managed appreciation, what happens when they throw in the towel on the US? The one major currency issue is the Chinese Yuan/USD peg. China has a boatload of their currency invested in USD. What happens when the Chinese say enough with worthless Treasuries? Sell USD and buy yuan and the peg is broken. I would rather own KRW assets than USD assets when this happens.

On top of that over 50% of GRVY's revenues are JPY. JPY has appreciated against the USD. 25% is KRW revenues and the rest a mixed bag. I may be American, but our system is broken. There will be a shakeout. I have a lot of my assets in non-USD denominated assets, or in companies that do a lot of business outside US.