Tanner a Lazard analyst, upgraded shares of Shire to "Buy" from "Hold," saying that shortage of Genzyme's drug Cerezyme could boost sales of a rival treatment. He now expects sales of velaglucerase [Shire's ERT] to reach $124M in 2010, up from a previous estimate of $12M, and he now forecasts $325M in revenue in 2011, and $407M in 2012. Tanner said he discussed the situation with a physician who believes only about 300 to 400 patients will be able to stay on Cerezyme. Unless new lots of the drug reach the market, he said, about 500 more will need a different treatment [some may choose to go on drug holiday], and they might continue using other drugs even after Cerezyme supplies are restored [assuming expanded access is available through approval]. Tanner pared his price target on Genzyme shares to $64 per share from $71. He said the company put sales of Cerezyme and another drug, Fabrazyme, at risk by making them in the same facility as a newer product, Myozyme. The company may scrutinize the decisions of its executives as a result [GENZ already decided to no longer produce Myozyme/Lumizyme at the 2000L scale in the Allston facility.]
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