Replies to post #161449 on Spongetech Delivery Systems, Inc. (fka SPNGQ)

[crashman]

yes, isn't that what I was assuming?

[chipgiii]

Unfortunately probability is only that simple when asking the chances of a single flip being either heads or tails: .5 One desired outcome two possible outcomes.

When it comes to things like sales and such, it is much more complex. First you need a very good sample: one that is reflective of the population: number of people who wash their cars at home, demographics of that particular area etc. For instance: you could have .20 chance (20%) in one area and .0001 in another. The first would be 1 in 5 washing their own car (then you need to figure out the odds of those buying any particular sponge), and in the second area the chances are 1/10,000. If probability were as easy as population/sponges, I would be very wealthy figuring out stock price moves....