Replies to post #43797 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[The Duke of URL]

CG, allow me to augment your post.

AMD64 is NOT what Andy would call an "inflection point".

An inflection point is defined an event whose seeming inconsequence does not normally portend the vast causal sea change which it implies. To be dealt with, it must be closely examined to contemplate the ramifications.*

Going from 32 to 64 is not that much different, so far, than 16 to 32 or 4 to 8. The consequenses are READILY discernible. NOBODY so far has missed the significance. They fact that Intel thinks it's better in two chips than AMD's one chip is a well calulated business decision. And of course, just in case, I am or Intel is wrong, the backup plan of EM64T is already in place.

The internet in 1995 and Mozaic/Netscape is an example of an inflection point. NOT because it's a neat idea, but because the exponential effect of 5 billion people and databases and facts hooked together is going to blow your socks off if you don't UNDERSTAND the consequences. And I don't just mean giving it Droidian nodding lipservice.

That is what Otellini means when he's taking about the "infrastructure" stuff.

Be there or be square! :))))) Intel may be wrong, but they have been thinking about this for a long time and have made the determination that 3264 ain't no inflection point.

*Copyright L-DUKEY Intergalactic Productions Amalgamated, S.A.. all rights reserved.

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A64 represents some sort of inflection point and that Intel is very likely to be damaged severly in just the next few months to a year."

That's it exactly. The debatable question is how much Intel will be damaged and how effectively they can/will come back.

The current situation is reminiscent of the early days of
Willamette vs Athlon. The main difference is back than
AMD had a big cost advantage because Athlon was a
bulk CMOS chip a little over half the size of Willamette.
Now it once more enjoys a modest performance advan-
tage over Intel on the desktop but with a significant cost
disadvantage. AMD didn't "damage" Intel materially in
2002 and will have a much smaller effect this time.

[BUGGI1000]

@Chipguy
"
The current situation is reminiscent of the early days of
Willamette vs Athlon.
"

Do you see Intel go to 3,6*1,5 = 5,4 GHz (Single Core)
in 6 to 12 months with major performance boosts through new
platforms as an add on?

Thats crazy stuff - what have you smoked? Or do you know
more than Intel by itself?

BUGGI

[I_banker]

The current situation is reminiscent of the early days of
Willamette vs Athlon.

Actually, today there is a big difference as compared to Athlon vs Willamette or Athlon vs P3. In previous duels, AMD may have had a bigger caliber gun, but Intel had a gun and was shooting back. This time around Intel has a gunor rather two guns, but one doesn't fire straight and the other is running out of ammo. Oh yeah, and they stopped making new ammo for Intel's P4 gun.

Intel will have to change guns. The big question is will FedEx arrive in time with the a brand new gun or will Intel have to suffer through some serious carnage. Hector seems to think that he can shoot off Intel's fingers and toes and maybe a leg.

It remains to be seen what happens. If we look at the news coming out of IDF, it isn't so good.

[bobs10]

What BS. You mean back in the days when AMD couldn't get anyone to produce MoBos because of fear of INTC. Have you forgotten about the white box MoBos with no identification of the supplier on them because the supplier was afraid of retaliation by INTC?

Well your right times have changed. Because of the way INTC has treated the chipset and MoBo guys I'm sure most would love the chance to spit on INTC's grave. The biggest change between then and now is the amount of support AMD now has from the hardware/software community. Heck the 939 chipset/mobos were out 6 to 9 months before the first chip from AMD even appeared. AMD is interested in pursuing a Win Win policy with its suppliers in contrast with the monopolistic, avaricious policies of INTC. AMD works with its suppliers and doesn't stab them in the back when it becomes convenient, something I'm sure the suppliers are well aware of.

One of the biggest problems INTC has is a lack of cross-fertilization due to everything being built in house. Current INTC policies are only going to cause more of the same. Besides that no one will work with INTC for fear that INTC will eat them alive. AMD on the other hand has no problems creating mutual benefit groups like the HT consortium. On top of it all INTC hasn’t had a single original idea, that was worth a damm, since the P3.

But probably the best way to show the difference between then and now is to look at how much support for AMD64 there is over IPF. I know your going to claim that 6 million code writers are busy writing Itanium compatible software, but it sure doesn't look that way to me. Even INTC is now admitting that Itanium progress has slowed since the announcement of EMT64. If anyone writes software for Itanium in the future you can bet it will only be after they have written the code for AMD64.

You right things have changed, INTC has become the pariah and AMD now wears the white hat within the support community.