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bigworld

07/01/09 3:24 PM

#27142 RE: food4thought #27139

OT Food: I am anticipating a marketwide pullback in here, but it seems to be late in materializing. The VIX and VXO have dropped too far, too fast to the mid-20's. The market needs a pullback to S&P 820-840 to set up the next leg of the rally. I wouldn't be buying until we get that pullback. GDX could be an exception anytime it drops to @ $36 or lower. Gold seems to be a leading indicator, making its moves 2-3 weeks before the overall market. Even with its recent pullback GDX has continued its series of higher lows since late October. UYM would also be attractive after the pullback. I never took a position in OSK, but it has had a great run since March. It might be attractive after a pullback. I agree with you that the potential downside is minimal with GDX, and although it could drop to $32 on some downward stampede it wouldn't stay down for long. NAtural gas has been the last laggard of the resource plays. UNG and FCG are both attractive at current prices. As for the stock vs. ETF decision, I prefer ETF's to eliminate individual company risk, although I do own a few individual issues like PBR, HL and some small biotechs. Good luck.