Stay the course, .... IMO the NSAI figures are low, and built in with a cushion. That's my gut feeling, and I think if one researched it, it would be just so.
actually it is a quite simple exercise....search original estimates of reserves on some mature major field discoveries and compare those to actual production and current remaining recoverable (proved reserves) plus Proven undeveloped reserves which are given a standard haircut. you will find they exceed the original estimates in, virtually, every case..
The WesternGeco 14.4 billion barrel estimate was equally scientific, albeit 8 year older technology. Seismic technology has been used since before WWII to find oil and WesternGeco knew what they were doing. Technology has not move so far forward that those older estimates are that far off.
The NSAI report is a subset of the JDZ potential, a very small subset.
Stay the Course: The NSAI Report for the JDZ might have been based on the seismic surveys combined with the information of the drilling results from OBO-1 in block #1. So if the Drilling of OBO-1 was off target, Using this data with the seismic survey information may have been to conservative or a safe play for proven reserves.
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