The three runs into the .90's were directly related to the auctioning of the blocks and the anticipation of our percentages of rights awarded. The first run in 2004 was from round 1, in which only block 1 was awarded, and the fast selloff, after we learned no other blocks would be awarded.
The second run was from round 2 of the auction in which blocks 2,3,4,5,& 6 were awarded in 2005. The selloff after the awards in 2005 was related to the angst of the possiblity of never getting someone to carry ERHE to first oil with a PCS agreement. That same year we had Pioneer and Noble sign MOA's for PCS's but later backed out (or forced out). And in 2006 we ran to the .90's again during the switch to Addax and Sinopec, and the drilling of block 1 by Chevron. The fall in 2006 came from the Raid, and everything that came with it.
I would say 99.9% of the longs were buying in anticipation of each of these factors and did not ever give two hoots about the price of oil.
The run last year to .60 was directly related to possible ROO's by Addax which fell thru, as did the stock price.
This years gradual rise is sustained and completely different, and of course directly relates to a very near drilling timeframe. And has nothing to do with the price of oil.
Oiljunior
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