THURSDAY MORNING EXTREME MARKETS A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )
GM Iconoclassic, Key Market Reports and Commentary for Thursday
Thursday, May 28, 2009 8:15 AM
From: "INO.com Morning" <morning@ino.com>
T H U R S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 28, 2009 8:30 AM ET. May 23 Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims 625K 631K Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change -6K -12K Continuing Jobless Claims 6662000 Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change +75K
8:30 AM ET. April Durable Goods Total Orders 0% -0.8% Orders, Ex-Defense -0.6% Orders, Ex-Transportation -0.6%
10:00 AM ET. April New Home Sales Overall Sales 365K 356K Percent Change +2.5% -0.6% 10:00 AM ET. May 16 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer 0%
10:30 AM ET. May 22 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet Total Working Gas in Storage 2116 Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) +103
12:00 PM ET. April Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index Manufacturing Index (MoM) -2.4% Manufacturing Index (YoY) -23.2% Auto Output Index (MoM) +0.9% Auto Output Index (YoY) -33.8% Machinary Output Index (MoM) -5.5% Machinary Output Index (YoY) -24.6% Resource Output Index (MoM) -1.5% Resource Output Index (YoY) -12.3% Steel Output Index (MoM) -5.5% Steel Output Index (YoY) -34.1% 4:30 PM ET. May 18 Money Supply
4:30 PM ET. May 27 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars Foreign US Debt Holdings 2.72T US Foreign Agency Holdings 818.01B Foreign Treasury Holdings 1.9T
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1437.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1336.50 would confirm that a broad top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-June. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1428.75. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1437.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1342.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1336.50. The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40. The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8230 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early June. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8591 are needed to renew this spring's rally and would thereby open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 9088. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 8591. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 9088. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8230. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 8066.
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June T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 75% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 118-04. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 114-14 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 123-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120-32. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 123-18. First support is today's low crossing at 117-01. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 114-14. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.54. July heating oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the upper end of this spring's trading range crossing at 156.91. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 171.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 160.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 171.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 153.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.33. July unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the breakout above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 177.78. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's rally, the reaction high crossing at 188.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 186.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 188.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 176.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.67. July Henry natural closed slightly higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.013 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.004. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.013. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.395. CURRENCIES
The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.46. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77. The June Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 142.910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.786 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 140.480. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 142.910. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.505. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.786. The June British Pound closed higher on Wednesday and above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1.5998 as it extends this spring's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1.6733 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5307 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.6084. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1.6733. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5586. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5307. The June Swiss Franc closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of last fall's rally crossing at .9259 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8989 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9251. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9259. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9089. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8989. The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 89.07. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 91.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 90.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 91.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.17. The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10338 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this month's rally, March's high crossing at .10703 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at .10657. Second resistance is March's high crossing at .10703. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10338. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10025. NEW! 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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals August gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. A late-session rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 971.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 924.40 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 964.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 991.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 940.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 924.40. July silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally above the 50% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 14.355. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.841 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.662 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.020. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.662. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.288. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.841. July copper closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday while extending this spring's symmetrical triangle. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 221.70 are needed to renew the rally off the late-April low. First resistance is today's high crossing at 215.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 221.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 196.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 190.05. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
July coffee posted a downside reversal due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 14.42 is the next upside target. July cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday thereby renewing last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, April's high crossing at 27.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 22.62 would renew this spring's decline. July sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.54. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews this spring's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 16.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. July cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.38. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 52.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.38 would confirm that a short-term low been posted. The Real Secret of Systems Trading And Trial of Trading Blox. Trading Blox is a powerful, professional software system which allows you to create, text, and implement your own mechanical trading system.
July corn posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday due to profit taking while extending the consolidation pattern of the past 10-days. Rain expanded across much of Illinois yesterday and moved in Ohio and Indiana today. This is causing further planting delays in the Eastern Corn Belt, which provided underlying support to the corn market today. Additional support came from solid gains in the wheat market, where supply concerns are growing for the 2009 crop. Some analyst's project that corn could lose from 1.5 to 2.5 million acres due to planting delays, which will continue to support both old and new-crop corn near-term. There will be another break ahead of the next rain event, although the models disagree on the length of this window. The American GFS solutions bring a better chance for weekend showers into portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio than does the European model. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July renews this spring's rally, January's high crossing at 4.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2 would confirm that a seasonal top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.34 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.48. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.21 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2. July wheat closed up 13 3/4-cents at 6.25 3/4.
July wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. Droughty conditions continue to linger in portions of north-central and southwestern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and southeastern Colorado, causing some yield loss in up to 25% of the Plains winter wheat belt. Early harvest results are very poor in Oklahoma and Texas, due to drought and freeze damage. However, the bulk of the freeze damage still lies north of areas currently seeing active cutting. Many Oklahoma and Texas producers are telling their customer harvesters to stay north; there's simply not enough wheat to make the trip south worthwhile. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.29. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 3/4-cents at 6.75.
July Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Wednesday extending this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's rally, January's high crossing at 6.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.49 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.49 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.29 3/4. July Minneapolis wheat closed up 25-cents at 7.79 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends last Friday's rally. Planting delays for this year's spring wheat crop continue to underpin the market and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 8.11 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.05 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.81 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 8.11 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.30 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.05 3/4. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans closed up 1 1/2-cents at 11.87.
July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. Profit taking tempered early gains after the market tested psychological resistance crossing at 12.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If July extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 12.23 is the next upside target. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.26 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 12.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.59 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.26 3/4. July soybean meal closed down $3.80 at $386.20.
July soybean meal closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally but remains above the 75% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 384.40. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. If July extends this spring's rally, the 87% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 408.40 is the next upside target. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 356.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 392.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 408.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 356.00. July soybean oil closed up 6-cents at 37.81.
July soybean oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.25. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline, the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 36.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 38.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 38.92. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 37.42. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 36.24. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $0.40 at $67.17.
July hogs closed lower on Tuesday and spiked below the previous reaction low crossing at 66.50. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 65.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.48. First support is today's low crossing at 66.45. Second support is weekly support crossing at 65.25. July bellies closed up $0.23 at $72.65.
July bellies closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 68.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.63. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 69.600. Second support is weekly support crossing at 68.25. August cattle closed down $0.72 at 83.10.
June cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 86.35 or below 80.70 are needed to confirm a trading range breakout and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.82. First support is the reaction low crossing at 82.02. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 81.60.
August feeder cattle closed down $0.12 at $102.45.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking after spiking above April's high crossing at 102.80. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, last November's high crossing near 103.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.77 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. _____________________________________________________________________
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