Sorry to take so long to reply. I was taking my fish oil, lipitor, prozac, aricept prune juice smoothie prior to attempting any response.
First of all, let's rank these three on risk.
OGC is lowest risk for performance because they are already a 300K per year miner. AGT says first pour is due in a week and Goro is probably going to slide on their mine until late 2009. So OGC comes out on top there.
Production. OGC is the largest for current production and exceeds any near term estimate for AGT and Goro. If Grey Fox comes online in say 2011, they could meet or exceed 300K but that's pure fantasy right now. Goro is going to start at 70 to 85,000 oz so 300K is a long way off.
Grade. Goro is the highest, by far. They have hit some bonanza grade veins that could put them in their target range of $100/oz cash costs. OGC had a remarkable Q1 at $279, which I don't expect them to repeat. AGT should be in the low 300's, respectable but last in this race.
Reserve size. OGC has largest proven reserves, next is AGT at a million and Goro is the least proven but could have the biggest potential due to the high grade.
OGC has the numbers now. They are the biggest producer. They are actually producing gold. They have low operating costs. They have significant cashflow right now. AGT and Goro have to prove they can produce to their forecasts. For the next 6 months, I think OGC is the best. If AGT rockets out of the gate and produces 12-15,000oz a month at $300/oz, they could get revalued to a 1.50 and shoot past OGC. Goro is actually the most expensive share price but has big potential, as you know. Just depends if you believe that they will find more deposits and can produce significant ozs at higher production levels.
Bobwins
Now back to my smoothie and my memory exercises.
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