Replies to post #42174 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[alan81]

Key to 90nm in fab36...
I have seen many speculate that AMD will start fab 36 with a 90nm process. I assume this would be the IBM 90nm process, as it is the only 300mm 90nm process available to AMD. They can not copy their 90nm fab 30 process as much of the equipment for 300mm wafers will be much more modern than what is used in fab 30... Which brings up several questions:
(1) When is fab 36 ready to start the first wafers? I think it should be later this year? It usually takes about a year from first wafers started to a qualified and running process, which puts 90nm process certification in late 2005. If they do risk starts they could start shipping production at about that point in time.
(2) Will the current hammer design run on the IBM process? I imagine at least some work would need to be done to accomplish this, which will potentially add additional delays.
(3) Cost... say $200m for the process cert, and another $50M to get hammer up and running on the process? If 65nm is only 6 months behind this 300mm 90nm process is it worth $250M of R&D for a 6 month product? It would add some insurance, but pretty expensive insurance in my mind.
--Alan

[bobs10]

That's something like what I'm hoping for. If the world economies are going to slow down, and the demand for processor chips is going to slow down, there's even less reasons for AMD not to hedge its' bets.

Incidentally, one of the things not talked about is the effect of the new 4 way and up servers on the total number of servers in the market. Used to be that something like 90% of the market was 1 and 2 way. I would expect that most servers would remain that way, especially as dual processors start to take off, but I imagine that a lot of the server farms, made up of hundred/thousands of 1 and 2 way machines will consolidate to "more way" machines in an effort to reduce costs. This could really affect someone like DELL that doesn't have the technology to produce anything but 1 and 2 way machines. Knowing Mickey though, he probably has a group of Indian engineers already at work on the problem.