hiker, my timing for a low in mortgage interest rates has been sometime in 2009 since I looked at the T-bill cycles back around 2003. I believe the lows for the TNX were set shortly prior to the start of 2009, but mortgage rates have been dropping since the US government has started back-stopping things this year, reducing the risk premiums.
I think the TNX will drop into the fall along with the equity market. If so, the TNX could test the 2.4% area, which could bring rates down another 1/2% to 3/4% if the risk premiums remian low.
As for moving this year or next year, the mortgage rates next year shouldn't be too much different as interest rates tend to remain low in the aftermath of the bursting of a debt bubble. Rates could be 1% higher in 2010, but houses could be 15% lower next year, so you may need to pick your poison.
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