Isn't this the craziest market? I mean, you have some really experienced people saying we're in a bull market that will just keep going up into next year with small pullbacks of no more than 10% or less. However, you have the guys who called this thing from the start like Nennar and Elidias saying no no no. I just don't know what to believe.
I know the wave counts are now saying we have a 1 through 5 up since this wave 1 is a clear impulse wave. That's the good news if you're long.
However, Oct could be big on the downside. I'm tempted to just sit it out until we get there and wait for the occaisional trades to pop up and not force them.
It's as if everyone has completely ignored what's going on out there. I think it's true what my friend Greg told me that he's seeing clear evidence of much of that TARP money being put into the market to prop it up rather than what it was supposed to be used for - buying bad loans off banks.
But manipulation only lasts so long - if that's what's going on. The SPX is way overvalued now and that article in Bloomberg over the weekend showing the comparion of every bear market since 1875 I think it was ending in a total disgust to be long proves that no way was March the low or end. Instead, this is a larger 4th wave. I think Moe backs that up, but 1017 is the upside target for this rally if it can get there.
Right now I think we're seeing an upside capitulation by shorts. But that too ends like capitulations end downlegs.
What to do? Don't force trades and if they get away from you, so what.
All you really need are a couple of TRMB/AET/TNA trades a year and you can turn $5k into $50k on three trades. The key is sitting and waiting for them to present themselves.
Keep AET on your radar because Obama is now going to start talking up health reform and that at first should be a problem for the stock. But as it becomes more clear, it could set up a nice new trade in it. It has a seasonality run between May 15 and June 7 each year.
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