hetherb,
If I had the time, I could set up a dummy binary variable for every time markgovols posts, 1 being he posted that day, 0 being he didn't post. But a) that's too much work, b) I don't believe it to be meaningful, and c) there aren't too many 1's to really make a difference.
As for causality, I seriously doubt that Erhc stock causes the price of oil to move up or down, although I guess if we hit a super duper elephant, then it could be possible that oil prices go down due to so much excess supply in the supply/demand equation.
So it may be fair to assume that causality is determined by oil on Erhc stock, IF there is causality at all.
Thanks,
Krombacher