Replies to post #77062 on Biotech Values

[exwannabe]

Re: DNDN valuation

Unless I am missunderstanding you, your ROW numbers are bogus.

DNDN could raise well over 300M for 7.5M shares w/o giving anything else away. Why on earth would they give discount stock out as part of a ROW deal?

Compare to ZGEN's IL deal and you would assume 300M w/o any stock would be in order for Provenge.

OTOH, the rest of the cash will be later than you estimate.

Regardless of this, the real kicker in Dew's starting point is how to evaluate potential HDPC use. I agree with Dew's way of thinking here, but it still leaves a lot of upside on the table.

[DewDiligence]

Re: DNDN valuation

I was trying to keep my model as simple as possible and avoid having to incorporate such variables as the milestone payments, royalties, and equity participation in an ex-US partnership. Let’s each proceed with our own models and compare notes when we’re done.

Time to peak sales: 5 years

As noted in my reply to masterlongevity (#msg-37483290), using 5 years instead of 3 years would not change the output from my model to a significant degree because there are offsetting effects.