when stocks were already trading in triple digits and buckling under the pressure of these high prices. The unsustainability of these high price levels would NEVER have been discovered in routine technical analysis charts. Rather the contrary as companies were STILL IN THE PROCESS OF BEING UPGRADED while they were priced triple digits.
The unsustainability of fundamentals to support these ridiculous valuations are apparent even today after 18 months of downside. This is what is giving us the CONFIDENCE to hold short/put positions for months which has slowed to weeks and and presently we are about 3 to 5 sessions, despite the patterns on TECHNICAL CHARTS, which are erroneously suggesting BOTTOMS (especially at one day BULLISH reversals which are only "pauses that refresh" before continued downside). Its not to say we'll never have a recovery, but when we do if won't be seen in technical charts only in the slow but sure return of confidence ONCE AGAIN IN Growth and EARNINGS.
The proof is in the pudding. Technology stocks called long over and over again by traders hoping for technology to turn up while at the same time not taking advantage of the ONLY UPSIDE IN THE MARKET which has been companies with consistent growth quarter after quarter, raised earnings guidance and low price/earnings ratios which virtually assure a window for more upside. Meanwhile technology has only continued to bite down to the dregs. We have consistently shorting technology rallies and didn't need to "hit 'n run" strategies but rather the LONG TERM DAYTRADE, because were were MORE CONFIDENT in the 3-dimensional analysis of the market based on A COMBINATION OF TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS. Pattern Failures has been the for NORM for these markets (small retracements off lows that are shortable at pattern failures) and when you hit' and go long at the "breakouts", no wonder you run in panic at the first sign of pattern failure.
Remember when a chart that indicates a potential recovery seems to 'work out' its only because
a) the fundamentals and positive words on the companies possible recovery that is causing the upside. (The NVDA rally which we promptly shorted the following day)..NVLS which was a short on every rally,
b) A bear flag rally is coming which is a "pause" that refreshes before more downside. This is erroneously equated as a REVERSAL rally, when its usually a "SHORT THE RALLY". EXPE which was shorted for 8 to 11 points 3 times, MIK which pulled back but was pretty clear would be up after already RAISING EARNINGS GUIDANCE weeks ago. ITS EARNINGS GUIDANCE RAISED UPWARD (what we call upside earnings preannouncements) that IS MOVING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE MARKETS. The puppeteer is in control and technical analysis chart patterns are the reactive moves TRIGGERED by the earnings catalyst. TECHNICAL ANALYSTS are the puppets being controlled and manipulated by the puppetmaster (earnings momentum, valuations, price/earnings ratios, consumer confidence, etc).
1)THE 2TREND DAY.. you either start with a gap up or 3 to 5 bar move up that that is shortable at a spike high (one of the best trading strategies) in these down markets.
2) There might be a gap down and recovery after 2 to 3 bars of lower lows, which eventually is good for a tiny rally (here is the "run")before the stock closes near the lows of the session
3) Failures of 10:00 highs or lows to give you much insight into what can happened by 10:30 (the better time frame for a market reversal)
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