The chart, whether PGPM or ACLY, is basically meaningless...
The PGPM chart says "no pulse"... The ACLY chart says "nothing real on which to base any WAG at value". Both clearly show charts of companies with major problems... the differences only a function of the recent history of the lead in to the awareness.
Both are either dead... or fully dependent on the real meaning behind the interpretation of "soon"... or its most recent reincarnation.
If they ARE working on an honest effort to resolve the ACLY audit issues... and it isn't clear that they are... there might or might not be any real ability to have that effort succeed.
It does appear that they will not be allowed to complete the sort of transfers of assets or value that it appears were being seriously contemplated... an effort which was structured to be WHOLLY within the sole sphere of PGPM management decision making ?? ACLY wasn't the issue or the actor in the PGPM management's effort to swap your PGPM shares for vastly less value in fewer ACLY shares than the $40 million note suggests are tied to each PGPM share.
ACLY was the issue in accounting... NOT with any issue tied to the prior IMVS management... but with issues tied to the deals done between ACLY and PGPM/Lariat, and in particular the handling of and accounting for the $40 million note owed PGPM. There were specific SEC filings made that appear to ignore the issue of the $40 million note... and the only thing the "former management" issues have to do with that seems to be in providing an excuse to continue to avoid dealing with the $40 million dollar question.
I'll agree that management isn't hurting holders by planning to "buy back" shares... but I think the forced effort in a "buy OUT/exchange" tied to a sleight of hand that it seems was intended failed with some finality. Given the obvious and egregious nature of that effort, I don't think there is much potential for them to be able to re-create any similar effort with a new design...
I think it is that FACT that really matters more than charts in trying to parse potential future value here. Maybe the IMVS management issues proving now to be problems for ACLY will prove insurmountable... or not ? Maybe ACLY will need to be made a throw-away, with the assets stripped out, in order to enable having any of its potential for future value be recoverable... or not ? Clearly, though, the IMVS problems aren't something PGPM holders should have to accept as an obstacle to management addressing PGPM's business.
PGPM is owed $40 million... still something in the neighborhood of $0.02 a share. I don't see any rational way they can avoid sustaining the obligation while also complying with the law... so, that leaves you still needing to make some sort of a determination on the potential that the value this is based on can ever be realized.
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