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hptaxis

03/26/09 1:25 PM

#6846 RE: ethan77 #6845

I agree that NBIX share price is taking a beating, or worse. I do not even pretend to know the reasoning behind the ups and downs of stock prices, including and particularly RPRX.

But I would venture that another cause is not that NBIX did not reach significance on primary endpoints, but that the significance was not as robust as expected or wanted. Further, NBIX is blunt about the endpoints that will be required by the FDA. Contrast this with RPRX, which is using a modified BB scale not acceptable to the FDA. The FDA no longer accepts or uses the physician component!

As far as the data, I disagree with your conclusion, but the argument is for a later post - and to be argued with respect to RPRX.
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docbanker

03/26/09 7:33 PM

#6849 RE: ethan77 #6845

You are correct. They missed the endpoint and missed several subendpoints. This was a predictable result if you looked at their prior data and then looked at the generalized level of benefit that placebo pts were seeing in RPRX's studies. This was NBIX's first adventure into a study with a control (and not even a positive control like RPRX has used in prior studies). Efficacy is weak. Didnt I also read that many patients werent allowed narcotics- makes the results that much less impressive- RPRX study had to show an effect above and beyond narcotic use.

NBIX time to fold the tent (and the $100 MM headquarters that you sale leasebacked).