jhalada, I remind you that I consider the degradation of the quality of economic measures to be a bipartisan effort over the last 25 years or so. That is why I said it is a societal issue. However, if any statement on the overall health of the economy is to be attacked as political then it makes it very hard to say anything at all!
My opinion on the indicators you mention:
1. Leading economic indicators - used to predict recessions and booms pretty well, recent record hasn't been as good. Hardly anyone quotes it anymore.
2. Purchasing managers index - seems to be a pretty good gauge of the expectations of corporations. As accurate as the sentiment of purchasing managers, which varies.
3. Consumer confidence - one of the least predictive measures ever invented! Gives a snapshot of the feelings of consumers at any one time, highly influenced by the context of news events.
4. Durable goods orders - one of the better indicators. Predicts the manufacturing sector.
5. Book to bill - a narrow gauge appropriate to the semiconductor industry, so of interest to this board. Note this gauge reflects the relative expansion vs. contraction of the industry, it does not attempt to show absolute information. Seems to predict the best times when the index is around 1.1; if it gets much higher then it is a contrary indicator showing that the industry is expanding faster than the buying market. Reached around 1.4 right before the big crash in 2000/2001.
6. Stock markets - a good leading indicator, which is one reason I am concerned now!
7. GDP - a trailing indicator that shows how the economy did last year.
8. Job numbers (also add gross payrolls) - Trailing by definition since the definitions are skewed to end recessions sooner than the average Joe sees any benefit. However, solid expansion of business requires good paying jobs, otherwise any recovery sputters out. (This is the Henry Ford theory of the economy, and there is a lot of truth to it!) Thus, even though defined as a trailing indicator, it is a good leading indicator of the sustainability of any expansion.
I think I've said enough on this topic and I risk repeating myself, so this is a good place to end this thread. Thanks for the discussion!
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