Replies to post #4684 on Transmeta (Semiconductor) (TMTA)

[wbmw]

Stack, Re: it looks like you Intel guys won and can make another cross on your "killed" list. Happy now?

There's nothing that pleases me when one of the little guys drops out of the race. If TMTA declares bankruptcy tomorrow, INTC stock probably wouldn't move a penny in response. I liked the idea of having a competing chip in the low power x86 market, and I even invested in TMTA for a short period of time (under which I lost a few hundred dollars to boot). Moreover, TMTA inspired Intel to design a more competitive solution for the low power market, and that has helped them competitively a great deal.

Fundamentally, I did not like TMTA as a business because of all the ego and promises that failed to deliver. I still remember Microprocessor Forum 2001, in which Dave Ditzel totally slammed the Pentium III-M with misleading graphs and data in order to make the Crusoe seem much better than it really was. His attitude during his presentation and the Q&A must have inspired something fierce from Intel, because Banias came out a year and a half later. Needless to say, at Microprocessor Forum 2003, he was a lot more humble.

Even from the beginning, I found the concept of a VLIW core with x86 emulation a little ambitious. A product of this complexity is almost sure to suffer from launch delays, and sure enough, these have plagued TMTA through most of their business. Even this year, in which they were supposed to ramp Efficeon, it seems that they have made very little headway. There are still barely any laptop designs out there with an Efficeon processor, and those that exist are in such low volume mobile markets that they couldn't possibly find enough end-users to make themselves profitable. Investors in TMTA should realize this, instead of hoping for speculative swings because of fluffy product announcements or marketing spin.

Each person makes their own decision on how to invest, and I respect your opinions, even if I disagree. I still wish you good luck in your other endeavors, and hopefully you've diversified.