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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: Thursday, March 12, 2009 8:30 AM ET. Mar 7 Jobless Claims
The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1093.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1139.48 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1017.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1134.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1139.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1093.00 Second support is Monday's low crossing at 1039.50. The June S&P 500 index closed higher as it extended Tuesday's breakout above the 10-day moving average crossing at 704.21 on Wednesday. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 744.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, support crossing at 655.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 729.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 744.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 704.21. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 663.30. The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's breakout above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6825. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that additional short covering is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7182 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow renews this year's decline, the April 1997 low crossing at 6315 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7015. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7182. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6469. Second support is the April 1997 low crossing at 6315.
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June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 125- 18 as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 129-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 122-02 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 128-00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129-02. First support is today's low crossing at 124-00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 123-04. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy April crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of its recent rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.27 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If April extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 50.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 48.83. Second resistance is the reaction's high crossing at 50.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.27. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 39.44. April heating oil closed lower on Wednesday and spiked below February's low crossing at 113.59. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 107.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 130.32 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted and would open the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of March. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 126.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130.32. First support is today's low crossing at 112.52. Second support is monthly support crossing at 107.35. April unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday and below the reaction low crossing at 127.00 tempering the near-term friendly outlook in the market. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, trendline support crossing near 116.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 139.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 140.61. First support is today's low crossing at 124.50. Second support is trendline support crossing near 116.35. April Henry natural closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline below February's low crossing at 3.916. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.380 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.060. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.153. First support is today's low crossing at 3.791. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.390. CURRENCIES
The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.61. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a double top with November's high might have been posted with last Wednesday's high. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 91.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 90.30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 91.74. First support is today's low crossing at 88.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 86.75. The June Euro closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.017. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 129.830 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews this year's decline, October's low crossing at 123.640 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 128.470. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129.830. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 124.560. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.640.
The June British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 1.3618 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4191 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4051. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4191. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3662. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3618. The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday and extended last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8600. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8720 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. Closes below February's low crossing at .8436 are needed to renew this year's decline. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .8776. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8801. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8600. Second support is last week's low crossing at .8475. The June Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates above December's low crossing at 77.20. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 74.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 78.70. Second resistance is the 20- day moving average crossing at 79.05. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.66. Second support is weekly support crossing at 74.30. The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .10101. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10459 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .9799 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at .10369. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10459. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .10054. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9799. NEW! INO TV - http://tv.ino.com/ - Watch From Your Computer - Avoiding Common Trading Pitfalls by Mark Cook. In this fast-paced video, trading champion Mark Cook shares his ideas for making winning trades. As the first place finisher in the options division of the U.S. Investing Championship, Mark credits research, planning and an attention to detail for his astounding 536% return. http://tv.ino.com/
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals April gold closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 875.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 946.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 923.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 964.40. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 891.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.70. May silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 12.361 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.476 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.946. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.476. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 12.430. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 12.361.
May copper closed lower on Wednesday as it extends last week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.98 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If May extends last week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 192.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 173.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 192.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 162.34. Second support is the 20- day moving average crossing at 155.98. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above December's low crossing at 10.500. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.812 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.080 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends Monday's decline, weekly support crossing at 9.745 is the next downside target. May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday and above the 62% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 22.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 21.62 is the next downside target. May sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11.81 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 13.34 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, November's low crossing at 40.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.45 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. Complimentary Option Trading Strategies
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May corn closed sharply lower on Wednesday and filled yesterday's gap crossing at 3.69 3/4 but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.64. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected 50 million bushels lower this month as higher ethanol use more than offsets a reduction in exports. Ending stocks are now estimated at 1.740 billion bushels. Corn use for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels higher on indications of improving blender incentives and higher ethanol use. Spillover selling from wheat and crude oil pressured the corn market and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Despite today's sharp decline, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term trend change has taken place. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.61 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/4. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.81 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.61 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.55 1/2. May wheat closed down 24 1/2-cents at 5.08 1/4.
May wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday and filled last week's gap crossing at 5.09 1/2 following today's bearish supply-demand report. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected 57 million bushels higher this month, with higher projected imports and lower expected domestic use and exports. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews this year's decline, December's low crossing at 4.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.43 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.43. First support is today's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is this month's low crossing at 4.99.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 22 3/4-cents at 5.61.
Kansas City Wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/2 following today's bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, gap support crossing at 5.51 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 5.88 are needed to renew this month's rally. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.15. First support is today's low crossing at 5.58 1/2. Second support is the gap crossing at 5.51.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 20 1/2-cents at 6.05 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday following a bearish supply-demand report. Today's decline also led to a close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.06 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, this month's low crossing at 5.87 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 6.03 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.98 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX May soybeans closed down 15-cents at 8.62.
May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday due to spillover selling pressure from wheat and crude oil. This morning's supply demand report was termed friendly as the USDA lowered ending stocks from 210 to 185 million bushels. Despite today's sell off, May remains above the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 8.52 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 8.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.86. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8.93. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 8.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December- January rally crossing at 8.20.
May soybean meal closed down $1.80 at $269.50.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking and filled yesterday's gap crossing at 268.50. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 248.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.50. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 275.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 265.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 258.50. May soybean oil closed down 107-cents at 29.91.
May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below February's low crossing at 30.00 due to spillover weakness from the energy complex. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, gap support crossing at 29.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.26. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 31.95. First support is today's low crossing at 29.70. Second support is gap support crossing at 29.43. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.20 at $60.32.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.84. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 64.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 63.15. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 63.35. First support is today's low crossing at 60.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 59.85. May bellies closed up $1.00 at $82.50.
May bellies closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short- term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.05 would confirm that a top has been posted. If May extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 85.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 83.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.50. April cattle closed down $0.32 at 82.55.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but remains above February's low crossing at 82.40. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 86.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. April feeder cattle closed down $0.40 at $90.35.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, February's low crossing at 88.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.41 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 94.75 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. _____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________
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