Replies to post #153 on Bob Brinker Data

[Kirk]

Richard, did you post this data?

I've been adding to the table below. I believe the paragraph of text and comments below are your. True?

If so, good work.

Kirk


Back in January of 2000 I made a list of all of the Brinker buying opportunities I could find from the date my subscription started. The dates shown are the newsletter publication dates, which generally occur about one week into the month. Note that the publication of a suggested entry point did not mean that the entry point necessarily materialized. In fact, out of 22 buy levels identified, the market got down to those levels only three times. (I am counting July 98 through December '98 as one buy level, because although it was expressed differently each month, the buy levels were essentially the same.) In some months, no entry point was published. This did not necessarily mean that the prior entry point was rescinded, however, as there were occasions when Brinker took credit for a previously published entry point even though it had not been reiterated (e.g., October of '97). Sometimes the entry point given was based on the Dow, sometimes on the S&P, and sometimes both. Since Brinker primarily recommends mutual finds, the decision about whether a target was reached or not was based on closing prices.

 
 Newsletter Issue(s)    Buy Target  S&P Level   Target  
 Published in                         then     Reached? 
 . 
 April-May '96           Dow 5300                No 
 June-Sept '96           Dow 5400                No 
 January '97             Dow 6100                No 
 February '97            Dow 6500                No 
 March-April '97         Dow 6600               Yes 
 June '97                Dow 7000                No 
 July '97                Dow 7300               Yes 
 November '97            Dow 7300  
                      or S&P  900                No 
 December '97            Dow 7400  
                      or S&P  900                No 
 January '98             Dow 7500                No 
 March-April '98         Dow 8000                No 
 May-June '98            Dow 8500  
                      or S&P 1050                No 
 July '98                Dow 8650               Yes 
 August '98              Dow 8650  
                      or S&P 1100               Yes 
 September '98            Buy now               Yes 
 October '98              Buy now  
                    up to S&P 1100              Yes 
 November-December '98   S&P 1100                No 
 January-March '99       S&P 1120                No 
 April-May '99           Dow 8800  
                      or S&P 1160                No 
 June '99                S&P 1160                No 
 October '99             Dow 9600  
                      or S&P 1210               No 
 November '99            Dow 9900  
                      or S&P 1250                No 
 May ’03                 S&P  810       917      No 
 June ‘04                S&P 1100      1121      No 
 . 
 

.
Comments from original poster:

May 8, 1996: "In summary, we suggest staying bullish, buying any dips below DJIA 5300 if they occur, and looking forward to the challenge of the Dow 6000 level later this year."

April 7, 1997: "In summary, buy weakness under DJIA 6600 and look for a rally to new record highs by summer."

July 7, 1997: "Under 7300, we rate the U.S. market attractive for purchase for new subscribers who are underinvested."

July 8, 1998: "In the event the stock market tests the recent lows in the area of DJIA 8650, we would regard such a test as a buying opportunity for subscribers who find themselves underinvested."

June 7, 1999: "We view the S&P Index as attractive for purchase below the 1160 level."

He identified so many buy points that never materialized that I am unable to convince myself that the above constitutes timing.

To that, add:

June 8, 2004 “We view the market as attractive for purchase on dips below the 1100 level of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index.”

I think we should add his current buy level of S&P500 at 1100. We have not closed below that level so I suppose we are still waiting? I recall he claimed we didn't have a bear market in 1998 because on a CLOSING basis the market only fell 19.8%, not 20%. What do you think? Still a "no" for 1,100?

1100 level given in Brimelow article here: http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=21574545&brk=1



Date Close*
20-Jul-04 1,108.67
19-Jul-04 1,100.90
16-Jul-04 1,101.39

So far, not below.... on a closing basis.