Nice to hear from you Merovingian.
It is always difficult to say when to jump on board and buy more. But this company is a win 50 times plus your investment or loose one time your investment sort of thing. I believe that with this in mind it does not matter that much whether you buy at 50 cents or 30 if it should drop further. Or perhaps it would be wise to load up at different levels to average out the entry point.
But then again, news from Paris is on the way and it might move the price upward. (See one of my previous posts) In fact we will get news from Paris on a multitude of different cancers rather than just breast cancer, so we should see a relative steady flow of PR’s that can affect the price. (Most other biotechs have only few significant PR’s per year). I will post a small research on Hopital Europeen George Pompidou where the independent clinical research is done next week. In short though it is a brand new super hospital that mixes research and treatment of patients. It won first price in competition with 180 other hospitals in Europe and could probably be considered the European equivalent of the Mayo clinics in the US. So Ricardo Moro is very right when he says that it is a highly reputable institution.
Some views on valuation is posted below. (my post no. 84). It is a bit old but still valid. Current market cap is about 14 mill. See also the newsletter from small cap digest.
Cheers A340.
Biocurex (BOCX) valuation.In response to some of the mails written by others in this forum I would like to give my view on a possible valuation of Biocurex. (I have a chemical engineering background)I am not going to bother you with details about their technology as I presume that most investors already know this. First of all there are a few things I would like to address.Buy4long writes that Biocurex has no independent valuation of their technology. I do not entirely agree. First of all a small independent study (19 cases) was performed by Dr. Le Riche, Director of Laboratories at the British Columbia Cancer Agency according to a press release from 02.19.02. This study found a 100% detection rate in breast cancer tissues with 0% false positives. Moreover, Historecaf was cleared by FDA as a class 1 medical device. This is not something you just get, so in my opinion FDA has to a certain degree given a third party valuation of the technology. I realise that no independent valuation has been given on the serum test, but as the Recaf molecules are shed into the bloodstream from cancer tumours I believe it would be a fair assumption to make that a high reading in tissue should give a good chance of obtaining a fairly high reading in serum.
Risks: Apart from the risks associated with investments in micro cap companies, and a I think we have all seen an example of that the last 3 weeks, I believe the risks from investing in Biocurex compared to biotech companies involved in therapies are a lot smaller. To develop a therapy you are looking at about 10 years to market and a huge amount of tests and money. We are talking tests on animals, phase 1,2 and 3 trials and so forth. So many things can go wrong when you are looking at things that take place inside the human body.Biocurex´s technology initially addresses tests taking place outside the body, so there are no risks of side effects. They basically just have to prove their technology works, and assuming they are telling the truth, I believe they have already done that. Obviously a lot more tests have to be performed on a larger number of samples in different cancers to obtain an FDA approval, but the risk of not getting an approval should be fairly low.
Moreover the time frame involved in tests outside the body is a lot shorter than for therapy. We are talking 12 to 18 months from the time clinical testing for an approval is initiated. Additionally you do not need the equivalent of a FDA approval in many countries to initiate sales in tests.Valuation: How much is this technology worth?? Well the currently used blood test for prostate cancer (PSA Prostate specific Antigen) has worldwide sales of over 1 billion dollars in spite of having relatively low sensitivity and specificity (about 35%). I believe prostate cancer is the third largest cancer form. Lung and breast cancers hit even more people, but there are currently no serum tests available for these tests. Biocurex has detected more than 90% of them both. Diagnocure (CUR.TO diagnocure.com) recently struck a licence agreement with a big pharmaceutical for a urine based prostate cancer test in which they get a fairly high reading if you combine the test with the PSA test. (However the doctor has to manipulate the prostate before testing and even though some people might find this pleasurable I think most of us would prefer not to). The licence agreement gives Diagnocure a 15 million dollars milestone payment and 15% of future sales in royalty payments. Lets say Biocurex is able to cut a 10% royalty deal with a possible licence partner and achieves future sales of 1.5 billion USD for their serum test. This should give them about 150 mill USD in annually royalty payments. Lets deduct 35% for tax and further 10 million for research and other expenses. That leaves 87,5 million dollars in profit. If we multiply that with a P/E value of say 20 (that would be low for a biotech company) we are looking at a company that could be worth 1.75 billion dollars a few years from now. I personally think it could be worth a lot more than that though. Considering that BOCX has a valuation of about 26 million USD as of now I think it would be fair to say that there is room for expansion. Furthermore nobody seems to realise that they have a tumour imaging technology as well. If you get a cancer reading in the serum test you will have to figure out what cancer form it is. Not only can they tell you if you have cancer, but they can also tell you if it situated in your big toe. The imaging technology could also be used to target the tumours in cancer radiation therapies used by companies like Siemens and Varian (VAR). The technology however is not fully developed.Not included in this valuation is the fact that BOCX would be able to target cancer cells via RECAF using radiation, monoclonal antibodies (Protokinetix) or vaccines. However for a therapy you are looking at a very long time frame to market. The knowledge though in it self should be worth a lot of money. In short we are looking at a company with a very low valuation that in 2 to 2.5 years from now could be ready to commercialise a blockbuster product. Lets hope that the clinical data to be released from Paris and Japan is good and will remove the last amount of doubt there might be in investors minds!
Any comments?This was just my own thoughts and should not be considered an incentive to buy. Please do your own diligent research!A340
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