Replies to post #267641 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Kimono]

Thanks, I listened to it yesterday. What I think will happen this week/next is that gold will move up to $418-$420, before pulling back. Hui, I think will go to about 210ish, then a pullback to I am hoping no more than back down to 202, though it could be lower. The Fed is behind the curve. All their business reports IMO are lies. I think the economy is already beginning to slow but inflation is ramping up. Greenspan is in a catch-22, if he raises rates enough to halt inflation, he stops the economy dead in its tracks, then he'll be worried more about deflation, then Humpty Dumpty falls off its wall.

Do you know when the Bradley Turn Date is/was? I sort of think the market is going to stage a small rally here for a week or so, unless the CPI & PPI look awful (likely). But they might just put off reporting them.

There used to be a time that the CPI reflected the real cost of living for the average American, real cost of food (my groc. bills are up at least 20-25% from a year ago alone), gasoline has got to be killing the commuter, medical bills/ins. are through the roof, to mention only a few things.
I mean really, how many cheap DVD's does a person need!

And I'll lay you odds that all the new "self-employed" are folks who have lost their jobs and benefits and have become Realtors. Even if they are just an associate they are classified as self-employed since they are independent contractors where they get no benefits at all and generally don't do so well for the first year or so.

I understand the number of listings is going up. Lots of people getting out while the getting is good.

[cycle dude]

My astro work suggests a huge gold/silver rally soon. I'm expecting some sort of liquidity crisis. The recent bank runs in Russia may be the first domino.

[simple]

Japanese Stocks Rise on Election Results
Bloomberg ^ / 7.12.04

Japanese Stocks Rise on Election Results; Mizuho, NTT Pace Gain

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose after the ruling party lost fewer seats than polls had indicated in upper house elections, allowing Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to push ahead with policies to spur economic growth.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. led gains. Stocks also got a boost after a Nihon Keizai newspaper report that the central bank will probably say tomorrow the economy is growing faster than initially projected.

``It's an ideal outcome for the stock market,'' said Koichi Ogawa, who oversees $8.6 billion in Japanese equities as chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``There's been no change in leadership and no change in policy.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 156.85, or 1.4 percent, to 11,580.38 at the 11 a.m. break in Tokyo. The broader Topix index added 16.70, or 1.5 percent, to 1163.62. All 33 industry groups in the Topix advanced. Nine stocks rose for every one that fell on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party won 49 seats, compared with 50 seats for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Benchmarks posted declines last week partly because newspaper polls indicated the LDP would lose more seats and prompt calls for Koizumi to step down. The Yomiuri newspaper last week had predicted the LDP would win 42 to 55 seats.

Mizuho, Japan's No. 1 bank, rose 5,000 yen, or 1.1 percent, to 458,000. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., the third- ranked lender, gained 17,000 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 697,000.

`No Visible Changes'

A wider election loss would have undermined Koizumi's ability to win backing for efforts to curb spending and push banks to write off their bad loans, some analysts said.

``There will be no visible changes (in policy), so to speak, that foreign investors should be scared of,'' said Kirby Daley, a strategist at Societe Generale Securities' Fimat division.

Japan's electorate yesterday voted on 121 seats, or half of the upper house total. The New Komeito party won 11 seats, which brought the ruling coalition's winning tally to 60 seats.

Koizumi, who had set a goal for the LDP to secure 51 seats in Sunday's election, said he has no plan to step down until his term as leader of LDP ends in 2006.

``This won't turn into a responsibility issue,'' said Teruhisa Ishikawa, an equities manager at Mizuho Investors Securities Co. in Tokyo. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party ``reached the lowest line of expectation.''

Ishikawa said share losses last week had already factored in the ruling party's likely result.

Economic Growth

NTT, Japan's largest telephone company, gained 16,000 yen, or 2.9 percent, to 577,000 on signs economic growth is gathering pace. The Bank of Japan will probably say the economy is growing faster than it estimated because of a recovery in consumer spending and business sentiment, the Nihon Keizai said.

The bank's policy board, which is holding a two-day meeting that starts today, may change its assessment when it discusses an interim evaluation of consumer prices and activity for the year ending March, the newspaper said.

Japan's economy, the world's second largest, expanded at an annual 6.1 percent pace in the first three months of 2004, the fastest rate among the Group of Seven industrialized nations.

Exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp. advanced on optimism U.S. corporate earnings forecasts may improving. General Electric Co. said profit beat its own estimate and raised its 2004 forecast, easing concern growth may slow in the world's largest economy. The U.S. is Japan's biggest overseas market.

Corporate Earnings

Toyota, the world's largest automaker by market value, gained 150 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 4,390. Honda Motor Co., which gets 90 percent of its operating profit from North America, gained 70 yen, or 1.4 percent, to 5,000.

Sony Corp., the maker of Vaio computers and Cyber-shot digital cameras, fell 60 yen, or 1.5 percent, to 4,060.

General Electric, the world's largest company by market value, had profit of 38 cents a share in the second quarter, a penny more than its May prediction. The company also raised the lower end of its 2004 earnings forecast by 1 cent to $1.55.

Nikkei futures expiring in September rose 1.3 percent to 11,580 and added 1.4 percent to 11,575.

To contact the reporter for this story: Michael Tsang in Tokyo at [e-mail].

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Teo Chian Wei at [e-mail].