Replies to post #33873 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)

[chichi2]

EOW = MajorMoves Comments for 01/02 by Chi2

All CHARTs in this Document are Updated every time you Open this Document or a URL.
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WHERE ARE WE ?
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01/02/2009 there were 20 of 20 possible MajorMoves among Major Sectors and General Indices, Volume altho Low moved Up.

McClellan Oscillators headed Up Strong in Turn Dn Areas. Summations moved Up again.

Some $INDU for 2009 Forecasts as high as 9600, and $SPX Forecasted to 1000. See 2 URLs.
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Jan_3_09.htm
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Dec_27_08.htm

Contrarian views also abound, see Carl Swenlin's comments On Why, just before my signature.

Chi2= Near-term Oil Prices are much less than Oil Prices later in 2009. Speculation is high in hoarding Oil for later sale, Oil being held in any major container available, including docked tanker ships. It has been recommended that US also buy Oil now in large amounts and hold it for next crisis time, so far we have seen no action in this regard by US Administration.

Feb 2009 Futures = .


Gold, Silver, Paladium Daily charts



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Dollar needs to drop in Deflationary action of CPI See Futures Short-Term chart.


** US Dollar if US Dollar starts Continuous Dn Trend, it is a sign Deleveraging is over.
We are awaiting the Fact. Dollar going Up shows Lack of Deleveraging.

See Godnwv's Dollar Forecast in US Dollar 25 yr Monthly chart in Section after my signature.




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60minCharts $XII, $OEX, $SPX with EMA20 & EMA50, Keltner Channels.

These Three Charts show Recent interim Quadruple Bottoms.
See comments on $XII dated 12/23 from StockTiming.com posted by George.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34377346





60minCharts SPY,DIA,QQQQ with equivalent of Daily EMA50 & EMA20 labelled.
A little Broader Perspective of where we are.





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General_Indices Daily $INDU,DIA,$SPX,SPY,$OEX,$MID,IWM,NAS,$NDX,QQQQ,$XII








THERE are ADDITIONAL GENERAL MARKET INDICES CHARTS after my signature.

And you will find some Gold Stocks there.
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Major Bank Index ($BKX) and Regional Bank Index (KRE)


Federal Capital Regional Banks= announced in Treasury Program 10/29/08
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33182931

Federal Capital Commercial Banks: WFC,BAC,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK
These Banks ranged between Up 6% to Dn 3%.

WFC,WB,BAC,MER,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK See Daily 3 Month Charts.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32885960
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FRIDAY, Eleven (11) of Eleven General Indices made MajorMoves: All Up
Up 4% $NDX, QQQQ; Up 3% $INDU, DIA, $SPX, SPX, $OEX, NAS;
Up 2% $MID, IWM,$XII.

Click URL for charts, includes
EMA20,EMA50,EMA100,EMA150,2008 Closing Bottoms(red-dashed), intra-day Bottoms(blue)
INDU,DIA,SPX,SPY,OEX,MID,IWM,NAS,NDX,QQQQ,XII See Daily 3 month Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34555751
.
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Nine (9) of Nine MAJOR SECTORS made MajorMoves All Up

Up 5% Consumer Discretionary, Energy; Up 3% Technology, Materials, Industrials;
Up 2% Health Care, Utilities; Up 1% Consumer Staples, Financials.

See Writeup and Sector Charts (10min 2 Day and Daily 3 Month Charts, side_by_side)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34319138

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DEFLATION is the Fight. Maintain a Protective Coat, for Years to overcome.
"Be wary of U.S. Treasury Bonds in 2009!" by Sy Harding 01/02 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34547652

"Fed aims to buy $500 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) by mid-year"
by Mark Felsenthal 12/31 posted by George http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34497000


Bloomberg Editor's Video Picks Be sure Each Day to OPEN this, and read TITLES.
Http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

McClellan Oscillators headed Up Strongly into Turn Dn Area. Summations moved Up again. McClellan Charts are in Later Section.

"HOW OVERBOUGHT IS IT?" by Carl Swenlin 01/02/2009 posted by George

"For the last few weeks the stock market has been drifting higher on low volume, and there is no doubt in my mind that the Fed/Treasury has been the invisible hand that has quickly moved in to squelch any selling that started. Under these conditions, I find it difficult to draw any solid conclusions from indicators that have been fed a diet of questionable market activity. Nevertheless, we must work with the information we have and accept it at face value until more normal market action increases our confidence in our conclusions. Chi2 suggests you read on... http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34547533

Think Very Long and Wisely,
Chichi2

In psychoanalysis, the PSYCHE refers to the forces in an individual that influence thought, behavior and personality.



Footnote (1) Democracy in America 1835 Vol I, 1840 Vol II by Alexis de Tocqueville
Http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/toc_indx.html

Per AI 01/03/2009
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Jan_3_09.htm

Per AI 12/30
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Mid_Week_Analysis_Dec_30_08.htm

Per AI 12/27
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Dec_27_08.htm
Per AI 12/20 http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Dec_20_08.htm

Per AI 12/16 See $SPX history charts as projections..
Http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Mid_Week_Analysis_Dec_16_08.htm



$SPX Trend chart


Three (3) 60min Interval charts DIA, SPY, QQQQ show EMA20 and EMA 50 labelled, and Volume, On-Balance Volume, and Gaps, and previous Bullish set-ups.







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Daily Gold&Silver charts since 11/15 _GDX_SLV__AUY,GFI,GG,HL,HMY,KGC,NEM,PAL,SLW,SSRI

Watch closely, as Gold and some Gold Stocks are being called Topping as they are nearing or over EMA_150. Those under it, tend to be doing better.


GOLD AND SILVER


GOLD AND SILVER Stocks







**************************************************************************
You need read no further, unless you seek more detail or charts.
You will need to Click URLs to see most Charts.
The Charts in the following Sections, First cover in Detail this Day's Action.
Then later toward the last Section, the Charts looks backwards for predicting Forward.
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charts= some High Dividend Stks APL+EPD+ETP+KMP+MMP+MWE+OKS+PAA+TNH+TPP+TYG+TYY
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=APL+EPD+ETP+KMP+MMP+MWE+OKS+PAA+TNH+TPP+TYG+TYY&d=t

Related Article "Investors Eye the Big Dividends on Offer from MLPs" 12/8
http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/081208/1578_id.html?.v=1
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Volume - Watch 50 simple moving average.
(see chart above for confirmation of overall Total NYSE volumes, and this URL showing Yahoos NYSE composite volume) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETV.N

Yahoo problem report is open on why NYSE Volumes do not correlate with their Up Dn Volumes. They promised an Ans long ago, never did solve the overall problems.

** Advances & Declines and related Volumes.
Click on URL, then Scroll Down ½ Page to see them.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/advances?u

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CHARTS of several McCLELLAN OSCILLATORS and SUMMATION Charts

McClellan Charts are based on Advances and Declines. We track their Oscillators (a combining of the Advances and Declines) and their Cumulatives which are called Summations.
These moves give us intelligence on the Moves of General Indices.

McClellan Oscillators headed Up Strongly into Turn Dn Areas. Summations moved Up again.
See my Charts, Live Below.

Below are Decision Point --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts

NASDAQ
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html


Below are Chichi2 annotated --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts








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** General Market Indices See 10min Interval Charts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32592605

** General Sectors: See 10min Interval Charts
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32598682

** US Government Placed Capital in BAC,JPM,WFC,C,GS,MS,MER,STT,BK,BCS
** FOREIGN Governments Placed Capital in BCS,CS,DB see 10min Interval Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32849538

** Markets includes General, Crude, Gold, CRB, and US Dollar
see headings http://www.ino.com/

** Metals (pick your poison) http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
See Metals Indices and Metals Stocks Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32573741

** US Dollar if US Dollar starts Continuous Dn Trend, it is a sign Deleveraging is over.


$USD MONTHLY (25 yr): Dollar Dropping to Continue per Forecast.
by GODNWV


** Bonds Rates Rise, if Prices drop. See Rate Charts
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32563220
"Be wary of U.S. Treasury Bonds in 2009!" by Sy Harding 01/02 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34547652


Volatility Indicators

StockTiming.com "$VIX= Fear and Confidence Indicator" 12/15 as posted by George Recommended Read, click URL
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34192775

      ----------  2008  Records   ---------- 
 Closing     VIX  80.06   VXO   85.99    VXN  82.39 
 Intra-day   VIX  89.13   VXO  103.41    VXN  86.52 
 

See Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33100319

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Below are Extras. Followed by Chart URLs.
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"How Good are Professional Market/Stock Forecasters Forecasts?" 12/23 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34377588

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Education: More on Sector Trading. My Trading Platform as do many Trading Platforms has "Sectors and Stocks in a Tree Structure". Many times during the day I go there, See Sectors, it shows me the % Gains or % Losses of each Sector. I click on the Sector I am interested in, it then shows me the stocks in that Sector, I can see each of their Tickers and again their % gain or % loss. I can then pick which Stock I am interested in. And so on.

Sector Trading is Good, starting point.

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Bill McLaren 12/10 comments on $SPX, SoyBeans, and $CRB charts posted by George
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34084702

Bill McLaren 12/19 comments on $SPX now and 1937 charts posted by George
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34298976

$CRB - Commodity Index Chart and Words by Godnwv


"Goldman slashes 2009 commodity price forecasts" 12/12 9:25am posted by Bob3
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34149756

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A LONGER RANGE PERSPECTIVE= "InstitutionalIndex"(XII), then_INDU,SPX,OEX,NAS,NDX with some Troughs and Peaks marked
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803038

LONGEST RANGE PERSPECTIVES INDU,SPX,OEX,NDX with 1987
10/27 was Recent Bottom, Retracement (10/28) was to Top of 1987 Blue Line channel marked
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803081

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[Myself °¿°]

Snapshot of updated Carl Swenlin PMO ITBM ITVM recreated
and a CVO STVO VTO chart.

Snapshots "will not update"



I don't like this chart much
Hard to understand the ind's

[Myself °¿°]

Snapshot of updated Carl Swenlin PMO ITBM ITVM recreated
and a CVO STVO VTO chart.

Snapshots "will not update"

[Myself °¿°]

Snapshot of updated Carl Swenlin PMO ITBM ITVM recreated
and a CVO STVO VTO chart.

Snapshots "will not update"

[DiscoverGold]

Gold Showing Strength by Carl Swenlin - January 9, 2009

All things being equal, the price of gold will move in the opposite direction of the dollar by the same percentage. In other words, when the dollar rises, the price of gold will decline, and vice versa. To clarify, fluctuations in the price of gold do not affect the dollar. However, the condition of "all things being equal", does not always exist. Gold can be trading with an intrinsic strength or weakness that is not easily visible at first glance. To help detect such conditions, we can use the GolDollar Index.

GolDollar Index was invented by Tom McClellan (www.mcoscillator.com), and is calculated by multiplying the price of gold by the U.S. Dollar Index. (We divide the result by 10 to keep the numbers from getting too big.) Its purpose is to cancel the effects of currency fluctuations on the price of gold. By comparing it with the spot gold index we can determine if there is inherent strength/weakness in the price of gold.

On the chart below we can see that the dollar has rallied strongly, and the price of gold has drifted downward in response, but it doesn't appear to be a reciprocal move. By looking at the GolDollar Index, we can see that it has been moving sideways, clearly illustrating that gold has been bucking the trend of the dollar, indicating that sentiment for gold is very bullish.



Another gold sentiment indicator is Central Gold Trust (GTU). It is a closed-end mutual fund, which means that it trades like a stock on the NYSE. The fund owns only gold -- the metal, not stocks. Closed-end funds trade based upon the bid and ask, without regard to their net asset value (NAV). Because of this, they can trade at a price that is at a premium or discount to their NAV. By tracking the premium or discount we can get an idea of bullish or bearish sentiment regarding gold.

As you can see, demand for GTU has reached irrational levels, with buyers willing to pay a premium of as much as 25%. That's nutty, considering that you can buy gold or the gold ETF without paying any premium at all. It does, nevertheless, reflect the very bullish sentiment for gold that is causing the price of gold to resist the undermining effect of the dollar's strength.



It is not out of the question that gold could actually move higher regardless of what the dollar does. That would be highly unusual, and not something that I would normally expect, especially given the current chart picture for gold. The current intrinsic strength of gold has to do with gold being an asset that has become very attractive as the value of other assets has been evaporating. But the price of gold, like anything else, is not guaranteed not to decline, something to keep in mind when evaluating those radio and TV commercials extolling the invulnerability of gold.

Bottom Line: As long as the dollar remains strong, the price of gold is most likely to decline. While there is strong bullish sentiment for gold, I expect it is only temporary, and not likely to grow to the extent that currency trends are irrelevant.

We rely on our mechanical trend models to determine our market posture. Below is a recent snapshot of our primary trend-following timing model status for the major indexes and sectors we track. Note that we have included the nine Rydex Equal Weight ETF versions of the S&P Spider Sectors. This may seem redundant, but the equal weighted indexes most often do not perform the same as their cap-weighted counterparts, and they provide a way to diversify exposure.



Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change."

George.

Click on "In reply to", to see any past commentary.