I wouldn't plan on anything out of Dell at least until the 90nm (if ever). As before, they'll just use the design as negotiating leverage with INTC. INTC will throw them more money in "volume rebates" or co-marketing funds so they don't "lower" ASP's, and they can bury the costs in MG&A or the Communication Group. Opteron would have to get to 20-30% of the market before it becomes too costly for INTC to buy the Dell account.
In the near term the downside to INTC is higher than the AMD upside. INTC loses pricing power, even though AMD can't supply the entire Market. INTC has to deal with every potential defector and they have 98% of the server market. They also can't afford for AMD to make $$$$$ to pay off debt and buy fabs. I think you'll see radical downsizing and price reductions at INTC before you see AMD at $50.
I think the upside plays will be companies with innovative products that can leverage the low cost 64 bit performance, like Verari (audio workstations) or DCS (digital video projectors), maybe with SUNW as a dark horse.
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