Replies to post #1041 on Trade Ideas: Support Forum

[Trade Ideas]

Great question. Many ways to answer.

Let's work backwards. The casino factor is described in the OddsMaker manual. Its worth a read here: http://www.trade-ideas.com/OddsMaker/Help.html

The Casino Factor in a nutshell is a confidence (or z)score that describes the probability that the next result falls within the averages for winning and losing trades in the backtest.

Here is a great post we wrote awhile back about how to evaluate OddsMaker results that is still true today: http://marketmovers.blogspot.com/2007/01/2-x-2-decision-box-for-determining.html

Additionally I judge a good strategy in the market based in part on the total number of trades the strategy generated over the 3week/15 trading days. In your case this is 894 trades which is on the high side. I prefer to find strategies that produce trades in the sub-300 or even under 100. Your positive results in terms of net winnings are the result of alot of trades, but you can have a better result with fewer trades and perhaps improve your odds at the same time. Ways to reduce the trade total are using more parameters in the filter section such as higher Min Current volume requirements.

I also notice a rather large worst trade amount. This leads me to suggest perhaps a better stop loss target. You may want to not express it as a percentage but as a dollar amount, like $0.75 and see what that does.

Good luck.