Hard to say, geo.
The shorts may lose interest at some point , or their collective memories of success in their shorting may keep their eyes on TIV so , there may always be short interest of one magnitude or another.
I wish I had more time or interest in TIV at the moment , if I did I'd run a calculation to see how much money TIV has spent on all the 'paying forward' over the last few years , on:
Buying Temblor
Re-working Temblor
Water-flooding Temblor
Whatever else they did at Temblor
Working PV
Drilling PV
Putting in the 'facilities' and steaming eqpt
Steaming PV
Buying all those rigs
Refurbing those rigs
The money lost when selling the rigs
Drilling Moffat
Operations expense of producing every bbl of oil and mcf of gas since the 'paying forward' started
etc etc etc
Then take all that money which was spent , and divide into it the total increased barrels of oil and boe of gas produced during this time period.
It would be interesting to see what the up-to-date cost per BOE has been , including all startup costs.
Right now , that cost must be HUGE.
THEN , if the currently producing wells continue to produce without huge additional costs other than normal lifting costs , we can see that cost per BOE start averaging down. Of course the speed of that cost average decline is slowed a bit by current costs of production which , in the case of PV , must still be huge.
So , there's a project for the interested ... what has it cost to date for TIV to produce the bbls of oil and mcfs of gas they have sold so far. Any guesses?
Tens of millions of dollars have been spent. Tens of thousands of BOE have been produced as a result. I'm thinking the current "all in" cost per BOE sold so far must be in the high hundreds of dollars ... if not thousands.
JMHO and I haven't had much coffee yet lol
jonesie
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