Clearly... the only reason DRYS would be running would be because I had just finished panning its prospects !!!
It seems WAY early in the cycle for shipping stocks to be rebounding... Perhaps means only that the 20th century style depression they may have been pricing in now seems to many more people that it isn't in the cards. The chart is rarely wrong... so, I won't fight it rather than use it...
I do see there are still some larger risks, but the recession we are in now seems to be shaping up as roughly comparable to that in 1982... the numbers now are better than 1982...
I totally discount much of the "big picture" economic reporting happening now... as it seems quite highly politicized... backing up the start date of the recession by a full year, for instance... is just totally bogus. Similarly, the ongoing efforts to talk the economy down are tied to the political calendar, not economic reality.
FWIW... I expect the recession didn't actually begin until the financial crisis emerged... so we are really only one quarter into it... but the massive reaction to it may quickly prove to be an over-reaction once the inputs begin to gain traction.
There is a bit of rampant economic ignorance among the elites now that creates some significant dangers... misjudgments and miscalculations... over-controlling and over-corrections... as we saw in the recently created artificial "speculative" excesses in oil prices... which served in the economic proxy role of a privately coordinated, massive and accelerated increase in interest rates... intended to make happen what has happened... just one of the problems that occurs when you give banks too much aggregated power with too little requirement of transparency or any assumption of responsibility.
The worst of the "depression scenarios" likely will be avoided... but just as there were huge misjudgments that got us here to the brink... there are unintended consequences likely associated with some of the tools being applied to prevent that result. Timing, I think, is a near total unknown for most, now... as a lot of what is being done now has never been possible before, much less considered as useful to do. Not as many questions re the "of what" portion in "the timing of what"... but the timing and sequences of what happens now is a total unknown. This could still prove to be the early onset of a more or less catastrophic depression, or both the deepest and shortest recession ever... or it may rapidly transition into stagFLATION... and I doubt anyone knows which is more likely at this point. It seems the inflation part is the only real certainty... again, with questions in timing, but four months from now... we will probably have a better view.
One of the unintended consequences now being overly discounted is the economic impact (profits) that will result in businesses that don't slow down too much too fast, but that have enormous sensitivity to the price of oil. If your primary cost just dropped by 66%, and your own demand and pricing are more or less firm on contract... falling oil prices will provide as much of a benefit now as they caused pain on the way up during the summer. I expect that impact is under appreciated, at the same time the expectations of the depth of the retrenchment thus far are over-blown. Maybe some few out there holding upside earnings surprises that will come along soon... among those with that sort of oil price sensitivity ? Maybe shippers ?
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