Per your PM. I can't do it and I refuse pay a memberships.
Natural gas hit seasonal lows in the summer months when demand picks up. They don't have the same supply glut that crude would. So the freeze up is closer to the supplier and not distributor. So distributors aren't hurt and can weather this weakness. I can't say if it will go lower or not. The bottoming out process for all commodities is a long and slow process. Copper looks to have made a big move. Its a leading indicator of most other commodities or of inflation. So I expect most commodities to start moving up macroscopically, but still based on their seasonal cycles.
So Copper and Oil have moved. Next should be Natural Gas followed by Gold once it puts in a bottom this summer.
2 or 3 year contracts? That is a tough one to call. It is very weak right now. It could go lower but over the next 2-3 years it will slowly go higher. The economy is going to take some time to recover and financials do not have the ability to leverage the way they used to. So expect low levels of profits in most markets as everything grinds up slowly over the 3-4 years. It won't be until the end of that recovery before a lot of the debts will get resolved through writedowns and rising asset prices. Then it will come to roost. All that trapped liquidity will be free to move around the markets and we should see a lot of uncontrolled inflation.
So Its say a 2 or 3 year contract bought now will be good but the best ones will be those bought in 2 years from now even thoug they will be bought at higher prices. Maybe ladder them. By 1/3 of would you need in a 3 year contract now. next year by another 1/3 for another 3 years and then another 1/3 in the 3rd year. Ladders should smooth out and price spikes. Like a moving average. That is basically what you are doing.
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