techcharter, here's a weekly chart of the Broker Dealer index with two cycle fld lines, the nominal 40 wk cycle (green) and the nominal 80 wk cycle (red). the break of the 40 wk fld suggests the 107 area, the possible break of the 80 wk (this week could confirm it) suggests the 99 area. the short term cycle trend (the sum of the next two larger cycles) overhanging the 40 wk cycle is flat, so i would expect the 107 target area can be met. trend overhanging the 80 wk cycle is up, which implies the 99 target will be undershot. trend overhanging the 80 wk cycle is estimated as up due to the new all time high in the index early this yr, which suggests the sum of all cycles larger than the 4.5 yr are up, plus we are approx only 16 months into this 4.5 yr cycle.
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