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Max Power

11/23/08 2:26 PM

#30128 RE: OntaREEo #30127

5 billion niobium? kinda low don't you think?
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downsideup

11/23/08 4:52 PM

#30137 RE: OntaREEo #30127

Mine is lower only because I'm not yet counting any chickens that haven't been counted before... focusing only on what is going on right now, and being more conservative than a few others here, out of an abundance of caution. And, as I noted before... there isn't anything wrong with having shares selling below $0.02 that we are very, very sure will be proven worth $0.30 or more in a month or three.

I don't disagree with you at all that the numbers ARE likely to go higher... I'm just pointing out that they don't actually GO higher until they do... so let's focus on $0.30 and wait for those other chickens to hatch before counting them. I'll be REALLY happy to go to $0.30 or more in value next month, and still have potential to go to some ridiculously larger number later. Whatever it is that is in the ground, it isn't going anywhere, and whatever value it does have, it won't be changed by guessing about it without looking.

For now, I do think SRSR is dribbling down court unopposed for a slam dunk, or as Scott said, "shooting fish in a barrel", to prove the $0.30... so, there is a probability factor element to consider. I'd guess the historic numbers that aren't allowed to be considered in a compliant report, still give me enough of a warm fuzzy to think the odds are about 95% or better that they not only prove the historic numbers but expand on them nicely in the current effort.

Beyond that, there are a lot of ways you can add quite a lot more value here in the future, but there are not all that many ways to add additional certainty in value to any of those numbers NOW, given you have nothing at all to work with to do that, now, other than what you get from doing what you are doing now. Proving numbers in Zone D will be great, but proving up Zone D won't prove much of anything about Zone E, so we should just ignore that for now... value it as nice to have in the back pocket, but not as proven or close to being proven...

There are four important additions to value that can, and I think will, come out of the current effort.

First, of course, is simply validating the historic numbers... Whooo Hooo... value of $0.30 a share.

Second, is improving on the historic numbers with better resolution and with current assay results that better define the resource quality, concentrations, and better define the nature and extent of "additional values" that weren't a big deal in the historic survey... so, take the historic info and modify it by the reproving of it, and add those new factors determined in the new information about the resource.

Third, is an element which will likely leave most people here rolling their eyes... as it is techno geek stuff... and contradicts what I just said above about not being able to add value in Zone E based on what we find in Zone D. The delay imposed means that drilling now will include taking a good look at the distribution of radio active elements, both in the cores, and in the holes the cores came out of. To the degree that there is statistically relevant data that comes from that effort, showing correlations between radioactivity and distribution of other minerals, you can use it to generate even higher quality resolution in the information from the second step, above... better defining the resource quality, concentrations, and better defining the nature and extent of "additional values". Will the radioactivity in the cores correlate with assay results ? Does the radioactivity in the holes correlate with the radioactivity in the cores? Figure out the statistical relevance, and you have created a new tool, applicable only to this deposit, that will allow you to add resolution to your prospecting. That tool can be used to map Zone E... and make better, but still not proven, guesses about resource quality, concentration, and the nature and extent of "additional values"... giving you vastly more reliable unreliable information... given the rules don't dictate physical reality, but only what you can say that is allowed to be considered reliable in reporting about reality.

Fourth, and perhaps the reason to be most excited, is that a better designed drilling program that tests the extent of the resource to the limit of the resource... could PROVE a much larger resource in Zone D. How much bigger ? No one knows... which is why you have to go and look to find out.

Drilling to depth will show something...

I hope they are still in minerals at the limit of the drill and we again end up not knowing how much there is. I doubt that will happen... but, maybe Zone D is 25%, 50% or so larger than the current estimate ? Maybe more? Without having defined the limit below 600', the extent of the deepest historic hole... no one knows, and it is all guesses how deep it goes, and what is in it as you go deeper... Maybe it only goes another 50' deeper, but the last ten feet proves to be fabulously more concentrated... so the value goes way up ?

Lots of potential to expand value from method number four... and that is the one I'm most interested to find out about.... because it will deliver a PROVEN value NOW.
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homey_g

11/23/08 7:50 PM

#30148 RE: OntaREEo #30127

It was ~5%...hence 0.67/2...round down...0.30...