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jerrydylan

11/21/08 11:49 AM

#22077 RE: neuroinv #22076

Speaking of good ol' days: We were at a point some years( but not too far) back where a company would get Mezzanine financing @ $25 million well before final stages and then IPO. And probably keep a nice hunk of founder's stock away from dilution. Look @ Cortex where a pretty likely commercialization, with maybe a $500 million in sales to a $billion in sales is valued @ $25 million in the stock market, but then the world's largest financial companies are all down 60-95% ( 100% in some cases) There will be fortunes made from this mess but they will not likely amount to anywhere near the horror of the loss, in dollar terms. Robert Prechter predicted this but he was very early. And ridiculed for it, he stuck to his guns. I am sticking with Cortex and hopefull it's descent in over. (real fu$%%king soon!)
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neuroinv

11/21/08 12:17 PM

#22078 RE: neuroinv #22076

Just to put things in perspective:
The mean share price for US-listed CNS companies is down 61.1% thus far in 2008. There are only two that are not in double digits (9 have lost more than 90%) in terms of loss:

Cephalon -4.9%
Cortex -6.0%

NeuroInvestment
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bladerunner1717

11/21/08 12:56 PM

#22079 RE: neuroinv #22076

Neuro,

In retrospect MITI's financing at $4.25 looks very good. And SPPI's deal with AGN also looks very good. Admittedly, both MITI and SPPI are focused on oncology. (SSPI now has about a $40 million market cap with $90 million in cash, about $3/share. The share price is about $1.25.)

It will be intersting to see how IDIX, a favorite of Dew's and one of my holdings as well, will do in negotiations for its HIV drug. The company has promised a deal by year end.

The problem is that there seems to be no end in sight for the financial meltdown which has become an economic meltdown. Allowing the Big Three automakers to go bankrupt will not help the stock market. I had thought that the worst case scenario would be 7500 on the DOW, but now I'm not so sure. (Buffett's Berkshire is down over 40% for the year so far, BTW.)

I think margin calls and hedge fund redemptions are still occuring, and that is hitting biotech very hard.

With the credit markets frozen, anything that any micro-cap biotech with less than six month's cash can do to keep a "going concern" has to be viewed as a positive. Anything, at this point, that Varney/Stoll/Coleman can come up with to get through 2009 will be especially positive.

(I sent Varney the article on Dew's I-hub board about biotech bankruptcies. As if he wasn't aware of biotechs' dire straits already--LOL)


Bladerunner