Replies to post #100 on S&P short term cycle swings

[SyndicateTwo]

I don't understand your post. I said that candle holds as a bottom as long as it doesn't get taken out.

On the surface, it sounds like a 'duh' comment. But trading is about adjusting to the conditions as they change. A key reversal like that at a low is a major buy potential. But if it gets taken out - something which no one knows until it happens - means something bigger is happening and you have to 'go with it'.

So, to put a positive spin on things, read this:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/khview/The-Next-Significant-Swing-in-a-Secular-Bear-Marke-79161.cfm


Haggerty I've mentioned over the years as one of the best. He's basically saying even if we get a intra-day trade on the SPX below the Oct 2002 low of the mid 700s, we are most likely about to, or have started a new cyclical (not secular) bull market that could run as high as 500+ SPX points based on historical bear market bull market runs.

Bear markets typically have the worst of their declines in the 1st two legs down. After that, they just have grinding out bases that demoralize everyone because for years you get nowhere.

So, there's the real possibility that we've hit the low area (actual low who the hell knows where it will be) and we're in for a range market between DOW 7000 and 12000 for the next 10 years.

I have no idea, but Haggerty is pretty good with this stuff and I'd suggest taking his word as pretty close to gospel.

Tomorrow will be very interesting because the close today suggests that Thursday's trade could open even or lower, jam lower 400+, then end the day as a reversal of magnitude to create this new bull market (short term). Or, it could open even or up big, then setup for more selling until we get that big down day.

Hopefully tomorrow is it. It 'feels' like we're just about there.

There is no technical 'triple bottom'. So, the fact that the DOW is now at this low for the 3rd time is not good.

But the selling will be quick