Xanadu,
I checked out that global order book spreadsheet thanks. There is no question alot of cancellations will continue through the next few years. Considering that letters of credit are a problem for the shippers it goes without saying that newbuildings are going to be cancelled at a record pace. The big questions is wheather the marginal players are the only ones who get flushed out. So far it seems to be working out that way. When i see a govt. sponsored program such as Brazil making a move like this its very Soviet like to me. Anytime i have seen a government this involved in the private sector activities its usually poorly run. If these newbuildings are all designed , constructed and run through Brazil expect shortfalls in engineers, steelworkers , you name it. Its not going to go like clockwork thats for sure. In either case 2009 is going to be interesting.
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