Replies to post #68257 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: IDIX / IDX899 prospective partners

>Gilead is the "lead suspect," according to an analyst who cited the fact that Sustiva, an NNRTI that is part of the company's triple combination regimen, will go off patent in 2013. Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb and perhaps GlaxoSmithKline could also be potential partners for IDX-899, the analyst noted.<

This write-up is OK as far as it goes, but it misses what was probably the biggest revelation from IDIX’s recent CC: that each of the prospective partners is interested in co-formulating IDX899 with the partner’s own HIV drug(s). In other words, none of the prospective partners is interested in IDX899 as a standalone product.

[DewDiligence]

IDIX – Further musings on IDX899 partnership:

After additional contemplation, I find that the stuff IDIX and the Rodman analyst have been saying about the IDX899 partnership discussions do not quite compute. Let’s recap:

1. IDIX says that the prospective partners are not interested in IDX899 as a standalone product, but rather as a co-formulation with the partners’ own HIV drugs.

2. IDIX says that partnering interest from multiple parties has reached an advanced stage of negotiation.

3. By far the largest segment of the HIV market is first- and second-line treatment with a Truvada-based cocktail (this includes Atripla).

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By dint of #1 and #3, the prospective partner had better be GILD else IDIX would effectively be forfeiting the largest segment of the HIV market. However, this doesn’t jibe with #2; if GILD is the only serious partnering opportunity for IDX899, why has there been a high level of interest (according to IDIX) from companies other than GILD?

Color me skeptical.