Replies to post #33 on GT Solar International, Inc. (SOLR)

[mike306oh]

All solar PV stocks are going to move up very nicely very soon, and along with them SOLR. No doubt in my mind; they will. Some of them will move faster, others at a slower pace, but they will all move up. Hence, short term, if you stick with SOLR or whatever (ESLR, EMCR, CSUN, LDK, STD, FSLR, TSL, SOLF, SUN, WFR, ENER, or others), yoy can't go wrong (compared to the general market, that is).

Let me make it very clear to you. Since the IPO, I was many times tempted to get in, but somehow I never pushed that button. Expresing my opinion vs SOLR is no bashing. Far from it. In fact, I recognize, and like the huge potential the company could have. For this to happen, however, I stick to my point: it has to start applying the approach I was talking about. Let's say someone in the accademics finds a better than Al back contact (that provides a strong back surface field, which is stable, still low cost, and it does not bend the thinner (below 300 microns) cells. What do you think it will happen with the producer of PV cells if it does not adjust fast its manufacturing line? W/o in-house R&D cappability, this can't be done fast enough, and the competitor wins.

Conclusion. As the solar PV industry starts moving faster and faster, and because higher and higher cell efficiency, and lower and lower peak/Watt cost are desired, more and more small inovations are going to be added into the cell design, and the surviving equipment manufacturers will be those that have the cappability to adjust fast their production lines. Will it GT Solar among the winners? Let's hope so.

Mike

[mike306oh]

Re: "moore's law applies to solar as well or more so than it did to memory"

Oh, c-mon! More's law has nothing to do with solar PV. On contrary, it pushed the critical dimensions of those components (approaching now 1 Billion components in a chip) from many microns to well below 100 nano-meter range. The only common thing is the fact that both the microelectronics and solar cell industry are using larger and larger Si substrates (from 2-inch in the early 80-s, to up to 12-inch now). But, the number of chips (including an ever increasing # of transistors on each chip) made out of one wafer is progresively increasing as the substrate diameter increases. On the other hand, going from 2-inch dia, to up to 8-inch (square or pseudo-square) now, you still have a single solar cell, and a single back and front contact. The only change is that instead of a single buss bar, you are using 2 or 3 bus bars now.

Mike