Replies to post #8 on Steve's Place

[DeepBlue1]

Damn! I got stopped out at break even on my GDX after being up over 7%...GRRRRRRRR!

That bounce did show that the cracks in the dollar are beginning to appear though I believe.

Shouldn't be long now...

Have you seen this site/chart? You can get real time quotes on the USD. Only place I've ever found that can do that. Also allows comparison charts/advanced charts/etc.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=DXY&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=8&freq=1&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=GDX%2C+SLV%2CGLD&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013


McGRANDPA's choice of Palin for VP was irresponsible, dangerous and an insult to Americans. By that choice and his continuing evil he's proving he'll do anything to win this election even to the point of endangering his own country. DEFEAT HIM!

[DeepBlue1]

Consumer confidence number came out and it's abysmal of course. T-bills still trading at crisis-mode levels as the flight to safety in the US Treasury notes continues.

LIBOR down slightly...???

A little different pattern so far in the DOW...instead of opening lower and teasing the break even line, today it opened higher and is teasing the break even line.

It's very early to put much stock in that, but that COULD BE an interesting clue to the hyper vigilant such as you and I. Especially in the face of a bad consumer confidence number.

Slowly the screw turns. Still lots of negative stuff to come out...jobs, retail holiday sales, you name it. Too early to do anything but short term trades I guess.

I was really hoping I'd made my first long term buy with the GDX. Oh well. Maybe next time.




McGRANDPA's choice of Palin for VP was irresponsible, dangerous and an insult to Americans. By that choice and his continuing evil he's proving he'll do anything to win this election even to the point of endangering his own country. DEFEAT HIM!

[DeepBlue1]

I feel your pain. Been there done that plenty of times myself.

I'm loving these trailing stops though, just as long as i buy at the right moment and get some upside cushion to use to play the stop.

So far so good. Made some on the last big trade a week or so ago and at least broke even this time.

[DeepBlue1]

Oh man. I can see the WHOLE ENCHILADA now! Can you see it?

The next words you'll start to hear is STAGFLATION. The one you'll hear right after that is GOLD BUBBLE.

It's all the interplay between the dollar, interest rates and liquidity now, and they're all heading our way.

Expect a few bumps along the way, but they'll likely be relatively small bumps on an otherwise straight path.

[DeepBlue1]

The last peak in gold in the 1980's was about $2200 in "today's dollars", and I use that phrase lightly since "today's dollars" are worth a TON MORE than "tomorrow's dollars".

The fed is lowering interest rates, possibly to ZERO %. This makes even the newly printed dollars "easier money". Couple this with the all printing presses running night and day and more coming soon, the next bubble will be in gold. I'm now a total believer.

Hang in there. It's comin'!

[DeepBlue1]

Hey, they're COMMITTED to stemming the bleeding in the stock market. They've already put $2 Trillion into it and they're meeting on the next $150 billion dollar "stimulus package" today.

The US, Europe and the rest of the world are headed for a DEEP recession and they're going to have to KEEP PRINTING MONEY for god knows how long to prevent a real DEPRESSION.

Physical gold is in SUPER SHORT SUPPLY, interest rate cuts make money easier...

IT'S A PERFECT STORM.

IT SUCKS cuz our dollars are going to be worth less though. The only way to hedge it at this point that I can see is commodities, and gold will be the ultimate commodity imo.

That's why I'm going heavy on the GDX miners. They've been beaten up WAY MORE than physical gold even, and their product will be in such demand as to make your head spin.

I do think the dollar is going to jump around a lot for a while because it's gapped up and down so many times that Forex traders will be playing it wildly for awhile, but the trend is now down as it's finally rolled over from that parabolic spike.


McGRANDPA's choice of Palin for VP was irresponsible, dangerous and an insult to Americans. By that choice and his continuing evil he's proving he'll do anything to win this election even to the point of endangering his own country. DEFEAT HIM!

[DeepBlue1]

I think after the interest rate cut is announced today, if it's the expected 1/2 pt cut that there'll be a dip unless the cut is more than 1/2 pt which I think will make commodities spike even higher today but that seems unlikely as they'd like to have at least a little ammo left in the interest rate dept.

I firmly believe from now on all you'll have to do is watch the dollar chart to play the gold/silver trade.

If you look at the DXY dollar spot chart you'll see gaps in both directions from where we are now. Those will be key points to watch for short term reversals if you want to trade gold/silver like I plan to do.

Bu if you want to just hold that'll work too if you can take the bumps without puking too much. LOL

I've saved about half of what I have to buy on the next dip at which point I'll likely just go all in and wait for the next trade as I watch the dollar's progression.


McGRANDPA's choice of Palin for VP was irresponsible, dangerous and an insult to Americans. By that choice and his continuing evil he's proving he'll do anything to win this election even to the point of endangering his own country. DEFEAT HIM!

[DeepBlue1]

And don't forget...THE ECB and the JAPANESE are going to be cutting rates too. The ECB has a LOT MORE ROOM to cut from here than we do. The Japanese are already near zero but they still have a little room none the less, and they do plan on cutting what they can.