sungolfer,
That triangle is showing up in almost everything. The NDX, RUT, SPX, DOW and institutional. Marty is pointing out that positions are dangerous, especially short. Until that buying that came in Wednesday late, I thought they would take it down to reach previous low on a spike down at open. Similar to what they did recently. The banks WERE in positions to look for that triangle break to be South, but they are starting to get some things worked out already. The clearing the desks of LEH and the CDO swaps were big. Inflation being checked a bit with the commodity deflate opens the door for $Ben to cut rates to help economy. The DXY has been in run away mode and could blow off quick, but it's actually distracting driving by a gas station and seeing $2.23 at the pump. A major food chain in the area cuts a 10/15¢ discount after you spend $100 that month. That's pushing on breaking $2 a gal. That'll be significant to the transports. Effecting everything.
It's a tough dangerous call on which way things will shift very shortly, but with OIL and $Ben dropping along with the help that the financials have gotten as they rework the garbage could yield a very sudden rebound. The spread between institutional buying and selling has been slowly closing, but foreign selling has resulted in market pressure. Add in a heavy short position looking for sub 8k that could add to a big move and all of the money that's been pulled and is looking for a home. Will that be real estate, bonds or equities that are on sale?
Tough call on whether it blows up on the pad or launches.
Will Oct kill the bear?
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