Replies to post #8699 on Pilgrim Petroleum Corp. (PGPM)

[mazmania]

Well the driver of MY expectations was when he said late august we would know something. This is ridiculous. Cant wait to get out of this stock...there are so many buys out there and i have alot of money (well relatively for my atleast) tied up in this.

[downsideup]

I'm still assuming we aren't seeing an actual trading market in ACLE shares rather than a wholly managed market... so I think days like today must be about keeping the market alive and pricing shares based on something other than real market supply and demand. Who would have 90K ACLE shares to sell today ?

Still, a solid bit of accumulation, today, reversing the trend, but not moving the shares up at all. Maybe that is just company or MM trading designed to move to and then defend a particular price point ? Who knows why. Wouldn't be that hard to defend $0.20, I would think, particularly if you sold a number of shares above $1, and now bought them back at $0.20 ?

The best potential would be if it were an combined effort in chart painting and managing prices... so that as the deals are completed and news is allowed to flow, again, you COULD see ACLE and PGPM move up in tandem... which you SHOULD see on a fundamental basis if they both have huge news coming out that alters the perceived values upward significantly ??? What does the current price suggest is the likely outcome following the reverse ?

Otherwise, the lack of news and the risk apparent in continued delay explain why prices are what they are today ?

Maybe what Ralph had in mind when he put out his $0.30 a share statement was: After we take 1/3 of the assets for ourselves, and do a 1000 for 1 reverse into ACLE that gives us even more and shareholders less, and then do another 1 for 10 reverse of ACLE, it will trade for $0.30 a share ?

If you take the current PGPM share price as $0.0004, ignoring all the value arguments about what it "should" be instead, or "will be" when we know the whole story, etc., just doing a 1 for 1000 (as in moving from PGPM to ACLE) followed by a 1 for 10 (the announced reverse in ACLE shares) gets you to $4 per ACLE share as "parity" with the 10,000 PGPM shares it takes to be worth $4 today.

As you change the numbers of ACLE shares involved in any such set of transactions, that underlying market value (based on the market value of PGPM today) doesn't change as a result, it just gets divided up into different numbers of ACLE shares... so if the ratio is 2 ACLE per 1000 PGPM, that point of price parity is at $2 instead of $4, etc.

Today, with ACLE at $0.20, or $2.00 post split per 10,000 PGPM, should you do the math backwards to see what the PGPM price parity should be... or do the math backwards expecting to figure out instead what that market fixed price for PGPM is saying in terms of the expected #'s of ACLe share per 10000 PGPM ???

I'm pretty suspicious of the patterns I see here in ACLE, with the run up followed by a sequence in plateaus on the way down... as it seems unlikely that there could have been a viable market price setting mechanism in operation when no one but insiders had any information about what was going on that would allow "the market" to set a price...

That leaves me in general agreement with others... thinking ACLE prices really don't mean squat until we know who is doing the pricing, what it is that is being priced, how many shares there are and how many are anticipated as the pricing is being done, what each of the shares represents in terms of assets or PGPM shares, etc. ACLE is for all intents and purposes a blind pool stock... that could have 5 million shares outstanding or 5 billion shares outstanding by the time we figure it out.

The only math worth doing, I think, is the speculative conversion rate math that might suggest a rational price point at which it will clearly begin to make more sense to buy ACLE shares than PGPM shares.

Today, you could look at it as if the market is pricing 2 ACLE shares per 1000 PGPM... 2 ACLE would be $0.40 and 1000 PGPM would be $0.40...

If that is the deal... PGPM holders are getting hosed over big time... as all the asset value is already held in the ACLE shares, while PGPM holders are getting less than 10% of what they should.

I don't think that is possible, even, since 12,500,000 ACLE shares held by PGPM already, divided by 1.5 billion outstanding, gives you 8 ACLE per 1000 PGPM shares... which, alone, would give you $0.0016 per PGPM for price parity based only on the known PGPM holdings of ACLE shares.

PGPM still seems the better bet based on the # limits ?