Replies to post #86045 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Elmer Phud]

45nm at AMD is in production now.

That's what Dirk said in the Q2 CC. The only problem is that nothing ever showed up. Otellini said Nehalem is now shipping. Should we believe him or think of him like Dirk?

[VBG]

ROTFLMOA!! (Wipes away tears...)

Ah, Pete, thanks for the comic relief!

Can you post to this thread more often?

I think chipguy put it best when he said "Correcting you could be a full time job if one let it."
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24467551

Seriously though, I'll make a prediction to go with yours and we can revisit them in future years. Except you have never been able to go back to a successful past prediction to improve you credibility, so why would I expect that to change?

Anyway, I predict that Intel will ship Westmere (32nm) for revenue in Q4'09. Proof will be either product available in retail by EOY '09 or Quarterly earning conference call where an Intel official states "shipped for revenue".

I will also predict the same for Ivy Bridge (22nm) in Q4'11.

For AMD I will predict that the first availibility of 32nm parts or systems in retail will not occur before Q1'11. No engineering samples in the hands of a review site, no statements by Dirk that "32nm is in production", as these metrics are meaningless. This will put AMD clearly at least 1 year behind Intel at 32nm.

I won't bother to point out that the 22nm announcement from August wasn't a functional chip, it was a functional cell. Oops, I just did. Sorry, but they are not quite the same thing. IBM/AMD is more like 4+ years away from 22nm CPU shipment. Here I will predict Q2'13 for available product.

Cheers!

-VBG