It's the high total put to call ratio that has me flummoxed Larry. These numbers seem totally out of context with what is certainly low TRIN and TRINQ numbers that are currently shown on my charts and by Les's data too.
In addition the volatility indicators are within spitting distance of the recent lows that were set not coincidentally back when we had a top with Les's data in April.
I'm mostly in cash right now with a couple of small short positions in play trying to remain patient while the market puts in another top. So far Les's data indicated a top is in place for the SMH. Semiconductors lead the NASDAQ both higher and lower. So while I would not recommend anyone short a dull market I think the risk, despite the high put to call ratio, is higher for those on the long side of the market right now.
How high can the market trade on low volume? It ran out of gas in January because of the lack of institutional buyers.
As far as Les's data goes it seems to me that if a trader was to go long the SMH each time you have generated a buy signal with his data and short when a sell signal arrives that in the long run the swing trading returns will lead to very tidy profits.
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