Replies to post #35957 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[arjunah]

Sentiment, I am expecting a 9M low in the Nov-Jan time frame. There are two ways to get there consistent with Hurst's principles. One is that the market continues to get battered and the 9M low will be even worse than what is being experienced now.

The second is that in the next week or two there is a powerful snap back rally up to the 1100-1200 area, and then a slower decline into the 9M low which does not necessarily have to take out the current low, but the Dominancy Envelope should be lower at the 9M low than it is now. The current lows could then be attributed to a "fundamental event." Hurst cautioned that "fundamental events" should be resorted to only as a last resort and I am reluctant to invoke it. However, I will begrudgingly acknowledge that a Global Financial Meltdown fairly qualifies as a fundemental event.

I favor the second scenario.