Replies to post #4471 on Tri-Valley Corp (fka TVLYQ)

[SA12]

This has even bigger implications:

Companies can generally withstand periodic stock price declines when they have strong balance sheets. TIV doesn't have a strong balance sheet and it is generally in a cash crunch state.

As of June 30 the company had about $3.0mm in unrestricted cash and securities and $4.1mm in receivables. They had another $5.2mm in restricted Opus cash which I doubt can be used for general corporate purposes. At the same time they had about $14.4mm in current liabilities including $11.0mm in payables and accruals. And another $2.5mm in non-current debt.

They have more current obligations than they have cash and assets required to pay them off.

In the June quarter they lost $3.3mm including expenses of $3.4mm in general and administrative expenses. This loss approximated the cash loss from operating activities meaning they are burnt around $3mm in real cash in the quarter. The cash burn would've been a lot higher had their payables not shot up nearly $3mm in the quarter. Delaying payments to vendors is typically a short term cash benefit because vendors shut the doors on you pretty quickly if you aren't paying your bills.

This is a bleak picture that can only be solved by raising cash. (Ok, in theory, another rsolution can be profits, but let's get serious.) No doubt they've been issuing stock, but at these prices, they'll have to issue a lot of stock with much more punitive warrant coverage - in my view. The dilution is going to be enormous. And the result will be continued declining stock prices.

Stick a fork in it, shorts won. Although, I'm not sure they'll start covering soon, because I think we're possibly now entering the death throws, especially if Lynn's ability to sell more stock begins to falter given his absolutely dismal performance.



Re predictions: You have to consider the source...

p.s. The "Prices" sections on page 3 of your attachments are great examples of why relying on the goverment to solve problems is just plain foolish.






As always, just one man's opinions.

[SA12]

Lynn's getting desperate.

Just saw the latest PR. He's trying to blame the stock decline on everything else but his dismal performance. The magnitude is due to the market, but the decline is due to management's performance.

Free advice Lynn: when you have no credibility it is just best to keep your mouth shut, Lynn. A CEO who keeps issuing press releases, that aren't even thinly disguised, to promote the stock without any substance behind them, destroys your credibility. Add in explinations of stock market activity, especially in the current market environment, when you are not a market expert makes you look even sillier. Stop it. Stick to your knitting, whatever that may be, certainly running a company isn't it, and you at least stop the decline in your credibility and may actually start increasing it (not you Lynn, a real CEO maybe).

The board really needs to step up here and do something soon otherwise this stock will be a delisted penny stock before we know it.





As always, just one man's opinions.