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DeepBlue1

10/07/08 9:15 AM

#23939 RE: starboy #23938

The market likes the move to back up commercial paper. All the components have suddenly started moving in the right direction including the Euro and silver.

Talking heads are celebrating that "the fed is finally BAILING OUT MAIN STREET TOO" instead of just wallstreet.

It's sure starting to feel like we're at or near at least a short term bottom now. Still haven't seen a classic capitulation bottom pattern yet though. I have my doubts yet about this new found optimism in the market. One more down move...a big down move on extreme volume would be more convincing. And on the other hand, nothing is acting quite "normal" these days.

I do think it's inevitable that they'll finally stumble on the right move/combination/tactic. Have they found it with this? Hmmmm????


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DeepBlue1

10/07/08 11:27 AM

#23940 RE: starboy #23938

I think Liesman and Santelli just put their finger on it.

They've likened this to a battle with a very wide front and that each step taken is just one of many that needs to be taken and that the fed is really just plugging holes in the front.

This last move does seem to have SLOWED the freefall but it's not enough yet to turn the tide of the battle.

Also this really isn't shaping up to be a V bottom. Probably a long rounded bottom is more what it'll look like when it's all said and done.

The advantage to that kind of bottom is that it should be a lot easier to recognize it when you see it.

I'm not going to chase any sharp moves to the upside as I think those will just be a long series of headfakes and money losers.

I may go back to my elipse charts to see if I can pick the smaller but tradeable highs and lows that'll be part of defining the "cup" that I believe will be the pattern for this market, and I think yesterday's 800 pt move to the downside is one of the first data points to use to start drawing this cup bottom.

The first thing I'll be looking for is a curving of the downtrend toward a more horizontal direction and the eventual upcurve.

There'll probably be MANY tradeable moves during this period but BUY-AND-HOLD will imo be a big waste of time for a long time to come.

I like this type of movement a lot better actually. There's no intense pressure to jump for fear of missing the bottom.