Replies to post #8334 on Pilgrim Petroleum Corp. (PGPM)

[downsideup]

Yes. That's right. But only "sort of".

Note, first, mine wasn't saying that the $0.0012 was a likely rational upper limit in PGPM's upside potential, or a near term target price... it was just pointing out the crazy nature of the massive valuation disconnects that exist in PGPM right now... while extending that to comparable "valuation" of the new "known" assets. Otherwise, it isn't really an error to exclude the known additional value of the 12 million ACLE shares already owned by PGPM... because those shares ARE ALREADY OWNED by PGPM right now, and PGPM still trades at $0.0006 ish right now ???

They have structured a pretty complex set of transactions here that has to actually happen for realizing existing value, and for new value, if there is any, to get recognized, and there are a whole lot of opportunities for making errors in figuring what it is they have, are intending, or doing, or in figuring the likely terms of any deal that we, as PGPM shareholders, will be forced to participate in. Given the obvious extremes in the levels of risk in the "knowns", and then adding in the large pile of unknowns, I don't think PGPM is irrationally priced here...

PGPM is still a total crap shoot. If it pays off, it could pay off really, really, really well... and if it doesn't... ??? ... well, you know... it could do what many others like it have done...

I judge it is a crap shoot with a risk/reward ratio that makes it a pretty good gamble... but, in this market, I'd still plan to keep some powder dry... expecting this issue is little enough followed now that you might still do OK here once some of the risk is wrung out... and before every one else figures it out ???