What do you mean? The first week of Sep up? If you're referring to my previous chart of the weekly cycle which showed that to be an up week, yeah, that was wrong but it wasn't my prediction. It was how the weekly cycle was supposed to play out per the Stock Trader's Almanac and McClellen cycle predictions.
I'm just parroting them.
Trust me, they are wrong from time to time, but they are way more often correct and many times to the day.
However, as posted before, there exists the very real possibility that you will never see these lows in your lifetime again. The SPX has an ultimate downside target of the 62% retracement level which is about 1070. 1172 was the 50%. The 9 month or 40 week major cycle comes in between Oct 13th and Oct 22nd. To put it into perspective, the 20 week cycle low was predicted March 23rd. It was almost to the day. That was a Sat I think that date came in which meant it was a weekly prediction.
But major cycle lows and highs just have to be within a month or two to be considered accurate and confirmed. So, we're well within the time range. The volume and rate of decline especially in Nas yesterday could be considered a capitulation. So, many might have been washed out in a forced margin selloff.
Remember that the market will always move months before the actual economy turns. Many times the market will be well on its way into a new bull market right as recessions begin. That's exactly what happened in 1992.
Just look at the homebuilders. Talk about a positive divergance. Look at that $NASI chart above. We're down for this week only -650 compared to -1100 on the previous two declines. Yet we're making a far lower low on Nas. That's screaming to you that something is going on internally with Nas positively that's not showing in the price - yet. Divergance! Pull up a $BPNDX chart. Look at where it stands compared to the two previous legs down. There are now 23 of the 100 $NDX stocks trading on PnF buy signals compared to under 15 before. Divergance! You're being warned of a monster rally around the corner. Was today the beginning of a bigger move? Who knows. But I do think Nov and Dec will be very rewarding.
So, don't be so negative and buy into the 'DOW 2000' BS.
And what do you mean way off as usual? I was wrong on MRVL overall, but always said sell calls and own puts. Had you, the decline was irrelevant and as in my case, actually very profitable.
I say buy BRCM now because there is little downside here. Hell, even HAL is worth backing up the truck. You could buy RIMM today at $68 and just retire of selling calls for the next 10 years month after month with a basis down here.
AAPL could be, but I actually think AAPL has a problem - Steve Jobs. If he's sick, then I just don't know what AAPL is without him. The guy is a legend and an absolute genius and impossible to replicate. We wouldn't have PIXR today without him. Hell, we wouldn't have AAPL today I bet.
If he goes, AAPL will be a $25 stock. RIMM though just is way to intrenched in the sector of the hottest tech market going forward. That's also why I like BRCM so much at these levels because unlike MRVL, they are extremely well diversified, consistently extremely profitable and will be the first to run back into the high $20s, low $30s on any new tech strength. That's why you buy it here and ride it up to the mid $20s to then start selling calls.
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