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ChrisTianSurfer

09/26/08 11:33 AM

#8151 RE: SkyeCapital #8150

what is your speculative price on the buy back price, without a reverse beforehand?
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downsideup

09/26/08 2:12 PM

#8157 RE: SkyeCapital #8150

A little poking around on the Texas Railroad Commission website shows that American has ongoing production of around 140 to 150 barrels a month, that began in January of 2008 with a bolus of 548 barrels, and has continued through July, which are the last records filed. The bulk of that is coming from Climax, with only 20 to 40 barrels a month coming from Lilly Hooks.

Looking at the stock price performance, it "spiked" from $0.002 to $0.003 around that time, and then has drifted lower, with a couple of events that are either distribution or accumulation, depending on how you look at it.

Looks for now like the key driver of the story is really the move up market and the changes in the organization that are paired with that move, more than any other factor... that we know about.

The other elements that remain open that could generate new interest or future interest are related to the ability to finance and/or conduct operations, which seems it might be tied to asset sales. Did they in fact sell drilling rigs a while back, so that they have a nice little pile of cash they are sitting on right now? There are some advantages that "might" apply in ACLE having no external debt... which will make the filings of interest for looking closely at the $$$ descriptions of assets and liabilities... although the filings won't likely reveal too much of value, other than what was attributed to what, likely without much of why.

It does look to me like they at least have the things in hand they need to be able to make a real oil company out of the conjoined pile of assets collected in ACLE. If I pencil out the probable asset values based only on what the PGPM assets are known to be, I find it hard to come up with less than $0.025 per PGPM share, which is still in the ballpark for my base target price.

What I don't have is any useful information on what the Lariat assets were, which would justify the relative distribution of the ownership in ACLE. There has to be something of value in that black box to justify the transactions we see... ??? There seems to be a wild card in the actual acreage under lease, which is pretty nebulous right now.

It leaves you needing to do two sets of math. One for the per share numbers in the various conversions, and one for the comparable asset values. It looks like ACLE will end up with a pile of hugely discounted asset values, giving it a lot of potential upside, also leaving it with a need to do things PGPM wasn't able to do to have that value be recognized.